One of the secrets to being a good fantasy sports player is to read. I read a lot. Yahoo!, ESPN, FanGraphs, FB365. You have to research, and my favorite kind of research is the kind where I don't have to crunch numbers, people who are smarter than me have done it, and I can reference it. 

Michael Salfino has a great article today on pitchers being lucky or unlucky in the ERA department, pointing out that if a pitcher lets the lead off batter of an inning on, than he is 3 times more likely to give up a run. He concludes that pitchers with high OBA's against the lead off batter, but low or average OBA against the rest of the lineup, are due to increase their value, and likewise, guys with opposite splits are due to regress. That is it in a nutshell, there are other things too, but I don't want to re-write the guy's whole article, you might as well give him the credit and the clicks he deserves by going to their site and reading it here, but not before checking out today's Pitching Match Ups below...and my one daily note.

Roy Halladay and the Phillies finally talked about his injury. He is scheduled to miss 6-8 weeks, no surgery, just rest and some exercise. Doctors said that there isn't anything alarming about the MRI on his shoulder compared to the baseline MRI they took in Dec 2009 when he was traded from Toronto. Halladay is confident that he will be able to return to form, but what about the rest of us? Sure, when he got hurt he was 4-5 (not great, but a lot of leagues don't count losses) and had an ERA of 3.98 which isn't bad, but when you are talking about Roy Halladay, he of the career 3.25 ERA and 4 consecutive under 3.00 ERA seasons he is coming off of, it makes him look more human than we are used to. Factor in a decline in velocity, and his lowest K% and highest BB% since 2007, and we have more to worry about.

If there is a light at the end of the tunnel it's that he A. Doesn't need surgery, and B. His ERA peripherals all point to him being better than the stats indicate, but last time I checked, I don't recall seeing a league that used FIP or SIERA as a scoring category.

Hey all, I don't have much time for notes today, but thought I would at least put up the guys I would sit or start tonight. Take what it what you will...

• Chris Young will be making the start for the Mets tonight at Washington. He is 13 months removed from the same shoulder surgery that Johan Santana and Mark Prior have had. He has had 4 rehab starts, three in Single A where he pitched a 3.18 ERA and then 6 scoreless in his last start at AAA. He is expected to max out at 80 or 85 pitches today. I've grabbed him as a lotto ticket in my NL only and Blog Wars. 
• Jason Bay will not be starting tonight as anticipated. He hasn't had a setback, he's just sick.
• Jarrod Parker threw seven innings of no hit ball to beat the Rangers. He finished with eight innings, one hit, and 6 K's. 
• Scott Feldman finished with 1.2 innings, giving up 8 runs on 7 hits. Roy Oswalt can't be ready soon enough...
• Resident most hyped sleeper of the year, Lucas Duda hit another homer last night, his 9th of the year and 5th in his last 10 games. I called him for 25-30 bombs this year. His current pace puts him at close to 28.

Last night Chris Sale was awesome. He has been all year actually, but last night was like some type of punctuation mark. Probably an exclamation point. He went the distance giving up only two runs on only 5 hits and 2 walks, to go along with 8 K's. Sure, Miguel Olivo tagged him for a two run shot, but Sale is easily surpassing expectations this year, despite the White Sox bouncing him around from role to role. On the season Sale is now 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. How is he doing it?

For starters, he has toned down the velocity of his pitches, which makes sense considering he needs to pitch more than one inning at a clip now. This drop in velocity has allowed him to have more control over his pitches, as illustrated by his drop in BB/9 (almost 1 full walk lower from last year). All of his pitches are grading out as plus, and he is getting swinging strikes at a rate that is top 20 among qualified starters.

I have some concerns that he may tire at the end of the season just because he hasn't thrown a full starting pitcher amount of innings in a season before (71 was his high list year, ZIPs projects him to finish in the 170 range, which could mark him as an injury risk heading into next year. That isn't now though. Now he is awesome.

In the bullets of yesterday's daily notes there are some intriguing nuggets or pearls of wisdom I would like to go back over. The first, Tulo's groin strain and my recommendation of who to possibly replace him with. I looked no further than Marco Scutaro, current Rockies second sacker, who retained his SS eligibility from last year in Boston. Scutaro came through last night with a 2-for-5 night including a solo HR and 2 runs scored. I'm like a crystal ball! FB365 delivers! This is info most people would pay an arm and a leg for and we are just giving it away! Of course said ball was knocked off the table and shattered by an errant elbow as I was trying to catch flies with chopsticks and my recommended start of Bud Norris went down the toilet like the coffee poop I had this morning. He only made it through 1.2 IP giving up nine runs...egh...OK I can't lie anymore. There is no crystal ball. There is a system I have though that involves a dart board, blind fold and a cat. Don't worry the cat isn't harmed because he is the one blind folded throwing the darts.

In other news, Carlos Gonzalez homered again, and Zack Greinke struck out seven in six innings. In other news...

• The Mariners beat down on the Rangers last night to the tune of 21-8. Justin Smoak had 2 three run jacks and Jesus Montero was 3-4 with 2 BB, 4 Runs, 4 RBI, and was a triple short of the cycle. Derek Holland gave up 8 in 1.2 IP while Yoshinori Tateyama was roughed up for another 8 in .2 IP.
• Adam Jones was hit on the wrist by a pitch last night, but finished the game. He went 0-2 (ending a 20 game hit streak), but went for X-rays after. Google doesn't have anything about the results, but according to the Baltimore Sun Jones says he'll be playing Friday.
• Dayan Viciedo had another strong night going 3-for-4 with an RBI and a Run. In his last 10 games, he is batting .425 with 4 HR's, 13 RBI and 10 runs scored. This might be the 3rd time I've said this thus far this season. Baseball is a game of streaks, ride the streaks.
• Matt Kemp re-aggravated his hammy last night and thinks he will have to go back on the DL. While this is bad news for Kemp owners, it's good news for me and my 2nd place Blog Wars squad , as I'm trying to capitalize on Bobby Abreu's .300 batting average. Don't laugh... it's a really deep league.