Skeptics Say: People say he lacks the "closer mentality", which I don't understand. Last year was the first year he was officially a closer and he finished the year with a 4-2 record with 2 blown saves. I don't really know much about what goes on inside the head of a pitcher (I'd be making a lot more money if I did) but I think it's pretty safe to say that if a dude finishes the year with 32 saves, 2 loses and 2 blown saves (one game he picked up a L and BS) there isn't anything wrong with his mentality, and he can be trusted to take the ball in the 9th.
Peer Comparison: Heath Bell is generally considered one of the best closers in baseball and comparing his primary fantasy baseball scoring stats with Madson is impressive:
Bell: 62.2 IP; 3 W; 43 SV; 51 K; 2.44 ERA; 1.15 WHIP
Madson: 60.2 IP; 4 W; 32 SV; 62 K; 2.37 ERA; 1.15 WHIP
I'm a proponent of WHIP being used as a scoring stat in fantasy. Anyway, I think the only difference we see here is the number of saves each player has. This shouldn't be a surprise since the Phillies are a higher scoring team than the Padres which leads to games with fewer save opportunities.
Team Outlook: A lot of people are speculating that Madson will not be returning as the Phillies closer next year. He is going to have earned (or be demanding, after all he is a Boras client) an expensive contract that the Phillies may not be willing to pay out (especially with Bastardo still in the 'pen). Regardless of where he ends up, this is a guy that will get a save just about every time he plays in that situation.
What They're Saying: Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com: #15 Relief Pitcher Ranking and #157 in the Top 250; Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld: #11 Relief Pitcher Keeper Rankings;
Projection: Obviously the number of saves Madson gets will be determined by his opportunities which will be determined by whichever team he ends up with. Even if he signs on a team that isn't projected to be a contender he can still be extremely useful (See: Joel Hanrahan and Joakim Soria from years past). Is it a cop-out to give a range for the Saves projection? Sigh... probably...
33 Saves, 2.40 ERA, 68 K's and a 1.13 WHIP in 63 Innings.