Key Stats: Carlos Gonzalez played in only 127 games last season (the equivalent of missing more than a month) and still managed more than 90 runs and RBI, and got at least 20 steals and home runs. He is an all-around fantathlete, and at the age of 26 let's not say that he's injury proned. He ran into a wall at full speed last year and that eventually caused him to miss much of the action that he did miss. 

Skeptics Say: If he's not injury proned, he's an injury risk. Even in 2010 when Cargo was the best player in all of fantasy baseball, he missed 17 games. In 2011 he missed 20 games as a result of that collision with the wall, but in 2010 he missed games as a result of several bumps and bruises (though he never needed to be placed on the DL). Perhaps it's pain tolerance or perhaps it's the way he plays the game, but in any case it's not good for the risk-averse.  no comments

Key Stats: Evan Longoria has averaged 28 home runs and 100 RBI over his first four MLB seasons. He is only going to be 26 years old this season, and if you ask most people they think he has not played his best season yet. The numbers suggest that he’s becoming a more disciplined hitter every season. In his rookie season Longoria had a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 9.1%. He has improved each of these every season to the point where his strikeout rate is down to 16.2% and his walk rate is up to 13.9%.

Skeptics Say: The first round pick is only justified if we think that that best season is coming this year. Relative to players taken before him (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera types), Longoria’s numbers have never matched up. He has never scored more than 100 runs, stolen more than 15 bases, or hit .300 in his career. no comments

Key Stats: Justin Verlander had the most strikeouts, innings, wins, and best WHIP among qualifying starting pitchers last season. That along with the third best ERA made him the best starting pitcher in all of fantasy baseball last season, and is good enough in these rankings to make him the top pitcher again heading into this season.

Skeptics  Say: Month to month, Verlander never seriously struggled. The highest WHIP he had in any month was 1.10 in August (by comparison the 30^th ranked starting pitcher at Mock Draft Central, Gio Gonzalez, could only muster a 1.14 WHIP in his best month). That said, Verlander did not look like the first pitcher to be named an MVP in two decades last October. He had an ERA in the fives as he faced tough competition in high stress games. He could have been worn out from a heavy workload on a team that needed every out he helped them get last season. The 271 combined innings that Verlander threw was almost 50 more than he fired in 2010. no comments

Key Stats:  Understatement of the year forthcoming… Clayton Kershaw is good. Only 24 and entering his 5^th season of MLB duty, you have to ask how much better can he get? You would assume at some point he can’t get any better and would hit a plateau of excellence. He ran away with the Cy Young last year for the NL with a 21-5 record, 2.28 ERA, 248 K, 54 BB and a 0.98 WHIP. It’s easy to look at that line and think “Regression”, so you look at his peripherals to see if you can get away with that. You see his FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are all under 3.00…”Ha!” You think, “He will regress this year… all the way back to an ERA around 2.70…sigh” You look at the K’s…248 is a lot, and a strikeout percentage of 27 is high… “He can’t reach that number again” you think, “27% is unsustainable for a starter.” Then you look at his innings pitched over his career and see they have been going up by about 30 each year for the last three seasons… if that continues it would put him right around the 251 that Verlander had last season.* “Damn…He could have 248 again…”

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Key Stats: A season after having his heart questioned spending most of the year on the DL, Jacoby Ellsbury set career highs in four out of the five major categories. He also set a career high and had a league leading total number of plate appearances (take that Kevin Youkilis!). Nothing was more impressive than his 105 RBI out of the leadoff spot.

Skeptics Say: He won’t hit .366 with runners in scoring position again and won’t drive in 105 again for starters. Matching the home run numbers will also prove difficult. Ellsbury actually hit a lower percentage of fly balls last year, but many of his home runs were lasers, so it’s possible that he can get back to the high 20s or low 30s in terms of the home run production. no comments

Key Stats: Joey Votto joined Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista as the only players in baseball to score, drive in, and walk more than 100 times. In other words in OBP leagues, this is a top ten pick and maybe a top five pick. Votto has now driven in and scored more than 100 runs in two straight seasons.

Skeptics Say: Votto’s numbers dropped off across the board last year. The number that is most concerning to me is the steals. Votto finished with 8 steals a season after stealing 16. At a position where he truly could separate himself by running, perhaps the Reds were more cautious last year or perhaps Votto didn’t sneak up on teams as a base runner last year (his success rate went down). no comments

Key Stats: Justin Upton’s strikeout rate went down by 9% last season while he actually gained power. Upton was called up at age 19 and this is a classic case of a player developing at the Major League level. The decrease in strikeouts resulted in a 16 point gain in his average.

Skeptics Say: On the road last year Upton hit just .246 with an OPS of .767. Certainly ordinary numbers for a player taken this high in a draft, but perhaps this is the next thing for him to develop as he puts his game together. Also, given his final line of more than 30 home runs and 20 steals, this might just be picky. no comments

Key Stats: I rejoiced in the off season after the 2010 season when it was announced the Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez. One of the best power hitters in the game leaving Petco was awesome. I immediately tagged him as the 3rd ranked 1B going into 2011. Gonzalez certainly delivered last year, but not the way we expected. I was looking for a .280 AVG, 40 HR, 90 Runs, 110 RBI. He sorta came through. He exceeded my runs and RBI expectations, missed the mark on the HR's... 27 is disappointing, but I'm not gonna complain since he traded that for a .338 AVG. What happened? He hit almost a career high in liners and set a career low for fly balls. With the monster in Fenway, A-Gone nearly set a career high with 45 doubles, 1 shy of his 2007 total. Too bad we don't score doubles in most leagues.

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