Key Stats: After completing his first year in the NL, we found out that Garza is who we thought he was. A strike out pitcher (8.95 K/9) that eats up innings (198 in 2011, 204.2 in 2010) and doesn't hurt our team ERA (3.32). The ERA is particularly encouraging, since the Cubs don’t have a great defense, and Wrigley field tends to give way to a lot of homers. Garza is great for a place like that since he is predominantly a ground ball pitcher. In 2011 he posted a 46.3% GB rate, the second best of his career. Now let me contradict myself. We like a high ground ball rate, but generally like to see good defense behind it, which as previously mentioned, isn't a strength for the Cubbies, and Garza’s FIP and xFIP agree, coming in at 2.95 and 3.19 respectively. His worst BABIP since 2008 (.306) might have had something to do with that too.

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Key Stats: Going back to 2006 (and probably further, but I don't keep records that far back) Ichiro Suzuki has not been ranked worse than 116 in any season. When we talk about the term consistency in fantasy baseball Ichiro is the standard which we based that term off of. Despite being on the worst offense for the second straight year in all of baseball, Ichiro has never had a season in which he has finished with fewer than 74 runs in 11 seasons. He also has had at least 26 steals every season including last year when he finished with 40. 

Skeptics Say: The season that Ichiro was ranked 116 was last season. A large part of that is the players around him, but those players aren't expected to change drastically. He averaged 111 runs per season from 2001 through 2008, but only finished with an average of 81 runs per season over the last three years. The most notable concern with Ichiro is that his average not only fell under .300 for the first time last season, but his average fell under .280.
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Key Stats:  Jaime Garcia has pitched two full seasons in the majors, and those two seasons have been amazingly consistent. He has identical Wins (13), WHIPs (1.31) and almost identical K/9 (7.27 and 7.21) and line drive rate (18.6% and 18.4%). His ERA is the only major stat that shows significant change from year 1 to 2, moving from 2.70 to 3.56, and it would seem that his BABIP and team defense were the main attributes to that. Looking at the overall picture of his stats hides his effectiveness in some situations though…

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Key Stats: It isn't hard to paint a bleak picture of Ubaldo Jimenez's 2011 season. ERA up by 1.80. WHIP up by 0.25. Wins down 9. Strikeouts down 34. Innings down 33.1. Looking at it through this lens it is depressing. Combine the numbers with the hype element though and it makes Jimenez even worse. He was the guy that started the All-Star game in 2010. He was the headline trade rumor player during the season for a period of about one month, and was eventually moved to Cleveland where he was expected to put the Indians over the top in the central. He failed most in his first four starts after the trade (when everyone is most interested to see his impact) and the Indians watched the Tigers in October. 

What all of this has done however is cause Jimenez to be ranked way lower than he really should be. He wasn't that much different from the pitcher he was in 2010. The ERA might have been up by 1.80, but the xFIP increased by only 0.11. The WHIP rose, but the BB/9 actually dropped. The strikeouts overall were down, but the K/9 hardly moved. Jimenez is not an all-star starter by any means (he was very lucky during that first half by any standard), but he is a safe pick for strikeouts, innings, and several gems per year. 

Skeptics Say: One thing that can't be argued in Jimenez's favor is the lower win total. Jimenez had the 17th best run support in baseball last year and had the 45th best run support in 2010 when he won 19 games. Let's also keep in mind that despite having a slightly lower BB/9 last year the WHIP rose for a reason. That reason is of course because he gave up more hits. Jimenez's fastball velocity which has been tops in the league in years past was down 2.5 MPH last year. That has been his best pitch in the past, but was not last year. It's worth watching how hard he is throwing in Spring Training when evaluating where to take him. 
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Key Stats: Anytime a player starts to use the R word it is cause for concern, but Roy Oswalt isn't the first starting pitcher over the last decade to contemplate retiring and then have a great season. Of course the two best names that come to mind in this regard are also headliners on the Mitchell Report, so who knows. The safest thing is to always go back to the numbers. In the case of Oswalt, when he did pitch last year he wasn't great. He had the highest WHIP of his career and the second highest ERA. The good news is though that he was probably pitching hurt for a good chunk of the season. In September and the playoffs, his WHIP was down to 1.17 - lower than his career WHIP of 1.19. 

Skeptics Say: Oswalt's agent did say in September that Oswalt felt rejuvinated, but there are still great concerns. He thought he may have thrown his last pitch last June when his back acted up on him. That's obviously bad and given that it is the back, there's a serious likelihood of the injury reoccuring. We have seen with other frail pitchers such as Pedro Martinez that the skills can diminish rapidly once a player is worked into their mid 30s. Oswalt will be 34 years old this coming season.
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Key Stats: With 132 saves over the past three seasons, Heath Bell has 10 more saves than the next closest relief pitcher. And these aren't Kevin Gregg saves where he just happens to be the guy getting his name called in the 9th innings. Bell has a 2.53 ERA over the past five seasons - proof that he's been a very good pitcher too. 

Skeptics Say: While the Padres have offered Bell arbitration, it's likely that the reputation in key stats won't make teams shy away from losing draft picks to sign him. Leaving Petco Park will be difficult, but the splits actually aren't all that different over the last three seasons at home versus on the road. What could be a bigger issue for Bell is a potential move to the American League. The Blue Jays are interested. Facing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays 57 times is not easy. 
There is also concern over his strikeout numbers which were down last year. He struck a career best 11 hitters per 9 innings in 2010 and only struck out 7.3 batters per 9 innings last season (a career worst). 
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Key Stats: We only had a really small sample of Montero this past season, but that sample gave us a lot to be excited about. Four homers in 18 games paved the way for a .269 ISO, and a ridiculous BABIP of .400 aided his .328 AVG. He struck out almost 25% of the time, but a jump in whiffs isn't out of the ordinary for a player moving from the minors to the bigs and I would expect that number to decrease next season.

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Key Stats: Beachy turned an impressive Spring training into an impressive rookie season. While he wasn't able to pile up W's (only 7 in 25 starts) Beachy posted an obscene 10.74 K/9 rate in 141.2 IP. To go along with that, he didn't issue a lot of free passes keeping that mark under three per nine. His ERA of 3.68 and WHIP of 1.21 are better than servicable in the fake game.
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