Key Stats: Stubbs was one of only 2 Outfielders in 2010 to give us at least 20 HR's and 30 steals. If you add in 90 runs scored as part of the criteria, then only Stubbs and Han Ram qualify in all of baseball. Despite striking out 168 times, Stubbs was productive enough to give us really high hopes going into the 2011 season. He was tops on my Man-Crush list going into drafts for 2011...then 2011 actually happened.

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Key Stats: Over the last two seasons Tim Hudson has averaged 17 wins, 148 strikeouts, a 3.02 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP. Quite impressive given that he's putting these years together at age 34 and 35 while being out after Tommy John surgery for most of his age 33 season. Even more impressive when you consider that he's been pitching with a herniated disk in his back for most of this time. 

Skeptics Say: Hudson is expected to be fine, but perhaps there are complications after surgery or something else that crops up during the year. That's just normal for a 36-year-old throwing a 100-plus pitches every fifth day. Let's also keep in mind that last season was Hudson's lowest groundball rate since 2002. It dropped more than 7% from where it was in 2010 while the line drive rate rose about 5%.  no comments

Key Stats: Chris Carpenter may have seen his rank drop from 64 to 175 last season, but there’s plenty of reason to believe there’s still something left in the tank. Carpenter was in the bottom fourth of the league in terms of the run support that he received, so even with the loss of Albert Pujols it’s possible that Carpenter will receive better luck in terms of run support.  He also had a very difficult start to the year. His first five quality starts of the season did not go for wins and while his xFIP never got any higher than 3.48 in any single month, his ERA in May was well over 5.00. Carpenter did settle in as he had an ERA under 3.00 in the second half and had three quality starts against the Rangers in the World Series.

Skeptics Say:  Another year over and a new one just begun. Carpenter will be 37 next season. Sure there could be some adjustments to the numbers from a luck standpoint, but it’s not possible that his stuff gets better. His K/9 was over 7 for the first time since 2006 last year. The likelihood of Carpenter being able to continue being a top twenty-five strikeout pitcher is only slightly higher than the Eagles chances of getting into the NFL playoffs.
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Key Stats: Nobody had more stolen bases after the all-star break than Cameron Maybin. Maybin’s 28 steals in the second half were 2 more than the overall stolen base leader Michael Bourn. Maybin only had one steal in 23 games in May,  but clearly earned had confidence in himself and the trust of his coaches as the season progressed. It seems like he’s been around forever (he did play for the Tigers before Miguel Cabrera did once upon a time), but Maybin is only going to be 25 on Opening Day. He has the wheels to steal 50 bases if he can stay healthy. Compliment that with a potential 10 home runs and he’s bringing numbers to the table that even Bourn couldn’t bring last year.

Skeptics Say: It wouldn’t be fair to say that the Marlins didn’t at least see glimpses of what Maybin showed last year, but if they thought he could put together the season that he did, Edward Mujica would be pitching for the Padres. Maybin had a taste of big league action for parts of four seasons and couldn’t ever find a way to stick in the majors until last year. Just because he stayed up all of last season does not mean he’s “arrived” by any means. His 0.35 walks to strikeout rate was 28^th worst in all of baseball. Among outfielders, he had the 45^th best OBP. There’s an annoying saying about fast baseball players - they can’t steal first.

Peer Comparison: Here’s a look back on the players to steal 50 or more bases in the last three seasons and where they ended up in the overall Yahoo rankings:

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Key Stats: For the second straight season, Gio Gonzalez was ranked between 100^th and 115^th in the Yahoo player rater. That’s solid consistency from a guy that is only 25 years old and now moving into the land of no DH.  Gonzalez’s greatest strength to fantasy teams is his strikeouts. He was 17^th last year in strikeouts and 35^th in 2010. The innings were essentially the same between the two seasons meaning that he developed into a better power pitcher last season.

Skeptics Say: Unlike his strikeout total Gonzalez’s WHIP was not in the top twenty last year. Or the top forty. Or the top sixty. In other words, in a mixed league his WHIP hurt teams. Among starting pitchers that qualified last year, only James McDonald had a lower walks per 9 innings. There isn’t much hope to report in this regard as it marked the second straight year Gio was second to last in walk rate (Jonathan Sanchez beat him out in 2010) and his walk rate actually improved last year. no comments

Key Stats: In 2007, J.J. Putz was the best closer in fantasy baseball, a top twenty overall player, and a repeat top fifty player according to Yahoo rankings. He pretty much was the same player as Craig Kimbrel last year. Then 2008 happened. Putz pitched through a rib injury and had a career worse walk rate (essentially giving up 3 times the walks per 9 innings he did in 2007 and 2011).  He continued the poor walk rate into 2009 with the Mets before he was finally shut down in June. After elbow surgery, it took him a month but he was as dominant as ever in May, June, and July with the White Sox. Dominant enough for the Diamondbacks to take a chance on him last season.

Skeptics Say:  Putz had a great year by the numbers for the second straight season and appears to still have great stuff after elbow surgery in 2009. The problem wasn’t the numbers, but the fact that he still missed time as a result of his elbow in the month of July. Putz could have had over 50 saves (David Hernandez had 7 in July) if he had stayed healthy. Putz will be 35 on Opening Day, so it’s hard not to be skeptical about his health again next season.

Peer Comparison: The other day Jonathan Papelbon was profiled, and Putz is settling two spots away from Papelbon. It’s very possible that Papelbon could have been ranked ahead of Putz. Here’s a look at their numbers last season:

	WHIP	ERA	xFIP	K/9	K:BB
Papelbon	0.93	2.94	2.16	12.17	8.70
Putz	0.91	2.17	3.10	9.47	5.08

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Key Stats: Mike Trout was MLB.com's Top Prospect in 2011. Baseball America had him No. 2. Keith Law at ESPN.com? Ranked No. 1. At 19 years old, Mike Trout has drawn comparisons from scouts to Mickey Mantle. He made his debut in the majors at 19, went back to AA, the skipped AAA again when he was called back up in September. He finished his 2011 MLB debut with a .220 AVG, 5 HR, 16 RBI and a .281 OBP over 123 AB's in 40 games. He will be 20 years old when the 2012 season starts.

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Key Stats: There's a reason that Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon said that he was not sad to see Jonathan Papelbon take his talents to the National League. In the best offensive division in baseball since Papelbon entered the league in 2005, Papelbon has a 2.33 ERA and has finished with more than 30 saves 6 times. He went through a rough stretch in 2009 and 2010, but bounced back in a huge way last year. Papelbon's walk rate went down from 3.8 BB/9 to 1.4 BB/9. All the while his strikeouts went up exactly 2 batters per 9 innings. The command of the strike zone and rediscovered dominance of the hitters he faces looks even better as Papelbon ditches the DH for the first time in his career.

Skeptics Say: Last season was a contract year, and comparing 2010 to 2011 it looks like Papelbon knew about it. The two seasons are huge contrasts to one another. 
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