Key Stats: Last season was certainly a disappointing year for Jayson Werth, but more eyebrows were raised after he signed his 7 year $126 million contract than they were when he fell 195 spots in the rankings. Werth was supposed to come apart a little last year because of the pressure of the contract and his inflated 2010 season by the numbers. That 2010 season saw him have a .352 BABIP (about 30 points higher than his career BABIP) and saw him finish with a career high 45% fly ball rate as he moved from an above average home run hitting park to an average one.

Skeptics Say: Werth will be 33 in May. That’s officially past your prime as a ball player, so he will never come close to being a top twenty kind of player again. There also wasn’t really a stretch where Werth demonstrated he was capable of carrying a fantasy team last year. He did not hit over .300 in any month and did not hit more than 4 home runs in any month. If he gets hurt even for a two week time period this year, he will have a hard time achieving this preseason ranking. no comments

Key Stats: The Atlanta Braves have a history of churning out quality pitchers and Hanson is no exception. He doesn't have the win total you would expect from an ace pitcher, but at 25, and not yet having pitched 3 full seasons in the majors, you have to be blown away at the other numbers Hanson has put up. His career 3.28 ERA is backed up by a career 3.46 FIP. His K/9 each season (8.18, 7.68, 9.83) has never been bouyed by an obscenely high BABIP. Even his walk 2011 walk rate, which was almost 2% higher than his 2010 number, wasn't outside the norms of his major and minor league careers. There is just one thing...

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Key Stats: There is no disputing that Josh Johnson is a star when healthy. A career 2.98 ERA (3.15 FIP!) and 8.28 K/9 with a 48-23 record turn heads. But health has been the problem. Four starts in 2007 then in 2008 he didn't pitch until July, healthy 2009 and 2010 led to 2011, where he made 9 starts then missed the rest of the season. The good news? He didn't need shoulder surgery. The bad news? We don't know if the problem is behind him.

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Key Stats: C.J. Wilson was a top 50 player in fantasy baseball last year playing in the worst pitcher's park in all of baseball according to ESPN Park Factors. Now he goes to the OC and the park that was 27th in all of baseball in terms of runs by Park Factors. In three starts at Angel Stadium last year, Wilson had an 0.53 ERA. During the last two seasons his ERA has been significantly worse at home than it has been on the road. This switch was perfect. 

Skeptics Say: He is coming off of a contract year in which he got a really big contract. Between finding a new house and finding a way to spend his new found wealth, how much time did he spend getting in shape for a season? There's a reason that players typically dip after a contract year and Wilson could be another example of that this season. 

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Key Stats: Freddie Freeman would have been the Rookie of the Year last season were it not for his teammate being the best closer in all of baseball. Freeman played in 157 games last year and given his youth injuries are unlikely to crop up again this season. He was inconsistent at times which is often a negative word, but in fantasy baseball inconsistent can also mean that he carries teams for stretches of time. That was the case last July when Freeman was the 13th best player in that month and had a .433 OBP. That said his September was not nearly as good. That could have been caused by a number of factors including hitting the rookie wall, the pressure of avoiding a historic collapse, and the lineup around him fading. 

Skeptics Say: Freeman doesn't hit lefties very well. The difference in average against lefties was about 50 points last season. Situational lefties will get their work in against him late in games, so hopefully he isn't bunched in the lineup with another lefty such as Jason Heyward so teams have to pick their spots of when they have guys face Freeman. 

Freeman also doesn't have the best plate discipline. It is hardly unusual for a 21-year-old, but it's worth noting that he had the 21st best strikeout to walk rate among first basemen last season.  no comments

Key Stats: Petco Park was the third best park to pitch in last year according to ESPN park factors, but Mat Latos didn't benefit all that much from pitching in Petco last year. His HR:FB% was actually kinder away from Petco last year which is why Chris Cwik of RotoGraphs thinks that Latos to Cincinnati doesn't really move his value at all. He'll be pitching for a better team in a tougher environment for a pitcher. 

Skeptics Say: For the record his ERA and WHIP were both better at home last year. Virtually everyone who knows anything about fantasy baseball will be forecasting that Latos will go over his 3.47 ERA and 1.18 WHIP next season.  no comments

Key Stats: For two seasons in 2009 and 2010, Ricky Romero demonstrated that he was capable of being a dominating force in fantasy baseball. In June of 2009, he was the 38th best player according to Yahoo and in April of 2010 he was also the 38th best player in that month. Romero's problem has been that he has not been able to establish consistent success. He did make very subtle gains across the board though from 2009 to 2010. His strikeout rate went up by about .3 K/9 and his walk rate was reduced by about .5. He also lowered his line drive rate against and fly ball rate against, while raising his groundball rate. All of these improvements were minor, but given that there were improvements in so many areas it added up. Romero moved up the player 262 spots into the top 170 overall. Thus the seeds were planted for a potential breakout from a 26-year-old in 2011. And that's exactly what happened. 

Skeptics Say: There is a noticeable difference between Romero's xFIP and ERA. His xFIP was actually better in 2010 when he was the 167th best player than it was last year when he was ranked in the top 50 overall. Romero's strikeout rate is not very good for what his expected average draft position will be. He had the 45th best strikeout rate among starters last seasons, but Cockcroft and CBS have him going as one of the top twenty-two starters. Drafting Romero means there is a gap in a teams strikeouts. And playing in Toronto means facing the Red Sox and Yankees 38 times. He had a WHIP over 1.50 against both teams last year.  no comments

Key Stats: Relief pitchers are the greatest uncertainty in fantasy baseball, but John Axford is a great pitcher. For two consecutive seasons he's been ranked in the top 60 at the end of the season according to Yahoo. During that time, his FIP, xFIP, and ERA have all been under 3 and his K/9 has been over 10.5. I've said it before, but relief pitchers shouldn't just be drafted for saves. The innings they pitch make them as valuable collectively to a team as a starter. Thus Axford's numbers are like getting two Cy Young types of months from a starting pitcher over the course of the season with saves instead of wins. 

Skeptics Say: Being picky, but Axford was significantly worse on the road last year than he was at home. The team also will be without Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (for a little while), so the team figures to win less games. That said, that doesn't mean there will be less save situations for Axford.  no comments