Tim Lincecum is also 28. He has won two Cy Young Awards. He is striking out more than a batter per inning this season. He and the team claim that he is healthy.
Although pitchers are a lot harder to predict when it comes to reading if they can bounce back, I never doubt a struggling veteran that still should be in or around the prime of their careers and has been consistent for a stretch of multiple seasons. It is the theory that every Adam Dunn owner has relied on this season. That every Dan Haren and Ian Kinsler owner relied on last season. Or Carl Crawford owners the season before that.
Can you get burnt? Sure, Crawford owners this season might have. Ubaldo Jimenez owners have as well. In both of those instances there was an obvious reason to look for the player to just fall off the table. Crawford was hurt coming into the season and is still hurt. Jimenez's fastball, which was his greatest weapon, stopped being fast. In the case of Lincecum, I don't know if there is a clear reason for his lack of success. The fast ball velocity is about 1.5 MPH lower on average than it typically is, but according to Fangraphs pitch values, Lincecum has actually had a better fast ball this season than he did last year.
Going by the numbers, Lincecum has been severely unlucky. His FIP and xFIP are both under 4.00, but Dave Cameron suggests that calling it bad luck is dismissing the fact that he is not locating pitches. In that article, Cameron describes a juicey 1-2 pitch that Lincecum made to Jesus Montero. To me, if Lincecum is not struggling with walks this season, he throws him something way off the plate and gets Montero to chase. Lincecum is struggling with walks and everything else on the mound, thus the numbers he has accumulated this season. Lincecum also is having difficulty pitching out of the stretch. His batting average against is almost 50 points worse with runners on base than it is with the bases empty. That could be mechanical, but it also could be mental. That whole "here we go again" mentality when someone gets on against him. More than anything, Lincecum needs one good start to build on. His greatest problem right now is himself.
Today he takes on the Athletics who are 24th in the Majors in runs scored and have the 4th worst on base percentage in the game. Lincecum has already struggled against the A's this season, but at some point if we believe that he isn't hurt, he is going to pitch like Tim Lincecum.
- Speaking of Crawford, he is set to DH on Saturday in a minor league game.
- Roy Oswalt will make his debut with the Rangers today. This has to be the most built up outing in fantasy baseball history for a player that probably won't be a top thirty starter from here on out.
- Trevor Bauer was in Arizona yesterday! For a meeting, not a promotion. About what sounds like making him a little more quiet when he speaks to the media. This reminds me of the process of getting a puppy. It won't be long before we're allowed to take him home with us.
- Stephen Drew will be back with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday of next week.
- Andrew Bailey threw a bullpen session yesterday and claims that his thumb feels great.
- Ron Gardenhire said that to bring Matt Capps back into action he might have him pitch the 7th inning and give Glen Perkins or Jared Burton the 9th inning instead.
- Vance Worley has given up 3 earned runs over his last 20 innings and does not have a win to show for it.
- The Pirates promoted last year's number one pick Gerrit Cole to Double-A earlier this week and he will represent America in the All Star Futures game. Here is a complete list of the roster for that game.
- Despite 80 steals (eighty) in the season's first half and solid OBP numbers from Billy Hamilton (if he's stealing 80 bases that implies a solid OBP), the Reds might not be promoting him to Double-A after the All Star Futures game.
- Tigers manager Mike Illitch claimed that Victor Martinez has been making progress and may be ready to rejoin the Tigers in August rather than September as it was originally expected.
Timmy's velocity has been picking up of late, which is encouraging. It seems like he has had a hard time adjusting to the fact that his heater was getting crushed. If the velo keeps improving, I'll buy in a little, but I'm not sold at this point.
I think it's part wishful thinking on my part. I just traded Fernando Rodney for him. Never thought I'd utter that before the season started.