Skeptics Say: Despite the small sample size, there was a fairly noticeable difference in his production in 2011 from the breakout he had in '10. His walk rate went up by 3%, but that is really all that was good. He went into contact mode, with his ISO dropping from .200 to .105, SLG went from .505 to .389., the K% jumped four points, the ground ball % went up, the HR/FB rate dropped, the surprising number of births 9 months after his callup declined significantly (I would guess... I have no data to back this up.)
Peer Comparison: I made the comment above that Posey is the Giants offense. If we combine his 2010 and '11 seasons, he has one season of stats under his belt. Pablo Sandoval put together an impressive season last year as well, showing that he can be the player we thought he was. How important are these two guys to the rest of the Giants offense?
|Posey '10 &'11||.294||22||88||76|
|Rest of Team '11||.269||94||443||498|
OK, now before someone jumps all over me, I KNOW it's a slightly flawed comparison, the numbers I gave for Posey are over a two season period, but really, his career is only 160 games. The point is to show just how valuable his bat is compared to the rest of the line up. Now with that out of the way...
Considering Posey's 22 bombs over a "full season" and Sandoval's 23 while missing a month, we have two players comprising nearly the entire offensive output. Aubry Huff lead the team in AVG among qualified hitters last year with a .246 average. .246... When looking at things in this perspective, Posey looks like the best thing to happen to the Giants (from a fantasy perspective) since Bonds started using the cream.
Team Outlook: Re-read the peer comparison part of this article, or, pause, get a drink, and let the atrociousness of the Giants offense last year sink in some.
What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline - #6 Catcher; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com - #7 Catcher & #121 Overall; RotoChamp - #41 Overall; Mock Draft Central - #4 Catcher and #58 Overall
Projection: As he gets more experience his BB% is going to continue to go up. Being a catcher his AB's are going to be limited and he doesn't have the luxury of being a DH to rest while keeping his bat in the lineup. That said, he can match the AB productivity of someone like Carlos Santana, but won't get the AB's necessary to keep pace in the counting stats like HR, RBI and R over the course of a full season.
.290 AVG, 16 HR, 85 RBI, 70 R, .370 OBP, 2 steals in 500 AB
Player A: 290 AVG, 16 HR, 85 RBI, 70 R, .370 OBP, 2 steals; <br> Player B.277 AVG, 24 HR 86 RBI, 70 R, .356 OBP, 0 steals;
Player C:270 AVG, 28 HR, 89 RBI, 70 R, .360 OBP, 5 steals;
These are all according to FB365's own projections. If all players play the same position, who would you take?
@Mathew Again, thanks for reading. Mark, thanks for commenting. As Mark said, he developed the rankings and I'm simply commenting on players. Our opinions differ on these guys, jut like I'm sure, that yours and mine will too. If anything, I feel that I may have even over projected Posey's RBI and R numbers here. In the Santana article, I may have over shot his AVG some. I think Santana has the better lineup around him, and as I pointed out in the above article, he will be able to play 1B as well as DH for more AB's. I'm bullish on him more than Posey, as are a lot of "experts" and fans given the difference in ADP for these two players.
Again, thanks for reading, and thanks for commenting.
@Mathew Well based on the numbers Player C of course.
First of all, taking a lesson from last year with Mike Napoli and there have been lessons in others years where catchers emerge from nowhere to be a top three kind of player at the position (John Buck, Kurt Suzuki, Russell Martin in 2007, etc.). If you're asking me who I'd rather have among Santana, Posey, and McCann than that depends. Are my first 5 to 8 picks made up of young guys with upside but questions? If so, I might want to hedge my bets and go with McCann. If not, then I might want to go after Posey or Santana depending on where the batting average of my current team lies. I ranked Posey ahead of Santana pre-season because I think Posey has less weaknesses across all categories. I definitely think Santana has the best upside, but that McMillen was optimistic in his projection. That said, I see where he's coming from.