Key Stats: The old argument is that people draft a veteran player that is on the decline too early because of name recognition. With Derek Jeter it's gotten to the point where the name recognition is so big that the reverse can happen and people are actually underestimating his value. Obviously Jeter isn't the player he was a decade ago, but he still gets the numbers. Last year when the wind and grind of a 162-game season should have gotten the best of him, Jeter hit .327 in the second half of the season. Among shortstops he was 6th in runs scored, 9th in RBI, 11th in steals, and 5th in batting average. The only category he was hurting in was home runs, but he was killed by a career worst HR:FB%. He basically won't hurt you in any category in mixed leagues. 

Skeptics Say: It's the same question that always gets asked of his teammates Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera. Can he keep doing it? After seven straight seasons with at least 150 games played and 9 out of 10 seasons with at least 150 games played, Jeter only played 131 games last year. Only catchers and pitchers face a tougher grind than a shortstop, and we saw how Posada came apart last year even as a DH. So at 38, we have to wonder if Jeter can still handle that grind. 
no comments

Key Stats: Peter Bourjos had 9 home runs and 8 steals in the last two months of the season. In August, he was the 22nd best player in all of Fantasy Baseball according to the Yahoo player rater. Bourjos is going to be 25 on Opening Day and was playing in his first full Major League season, so the fact that he was finishing strong is an encouraging sign. 

Skeptics Say: Bourjos had 3 home runs and 14 steals when it wasn't August and September. Those numbers can be found much further down in the draft board than pick number 134.

A 22.5% strikeout rate is generally frowned upon, but especially in the case of a burner like Bourjos. The fact that his walk rate is only 5.8% doesn't help matters either. That said, Bourjos will stick as a regular in the Angel lineup because of his skills defensively and because his offensive numbers were good enough last season. 

no comments

Key Stats: Mark Reynolds has averaged 38 home runs over the last three years. At pick 135, that's very cheap power. There were questions about how Reynolds would fair after he left Chase Field, but Camden Yards isn't that much of a downgrade as last season proved. Reynolds also had his lowest strikeout rate in four seasons. It wasn't saying much, but it did improve his average by 23 points over last season.

Skeptics Say: Speaking of his average, it's the reason why at pick 135 there is a player that averages 38 home runs who can still be available. Only Vernon Wells was worse among players that had enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. He also is a horrible fielder. The Orioles will make him the full-time first baseman next year, but in 43 starts there he had 5 errors last year. That is on pace to be more errors than Miguel Cabrera had at first.  no comments

Key Stats: Brandon Morrow was supposed to breakout in 2011. Oops. The FIP was supposed to adjust to the ERA more after he finished last year with a 4.49 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and 3.58 xFIP. This past season though Morrow had a 4.72 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 3.53 xFIP. Evidently either the Blue Jays defense needs significant improvement or these metrics are not how we should be evaluating Morrow. One final thing to consider: Morrow got just 1 double play all season behind him with a groundball rate of 36%.

Skeptics Say: Football coaches are always talking about stopping the big play. Fantasy managers are always trying to stop the bad game from pitchers. Morrow had 8 starts in 2012 in which he gave up 5 or more earned runs. One of the big problems for Morrow in these games was home runs as he gave up at least 1 in 6 out of 8 of these games. The other problem not just in his bad games, but in every game is walks. Morrow did not have one start in thirty chances where he did not walk a batter.  no comments

Key Stats: Since missing the 2009 season with Tommy John surgery Shaun Marcum has been ranked in the top 125 in the Yahoo player rater two years in a row. The greatest strength of Marcum statistically is his WHIP. Going back to the season before he had Tommy John surgery, Marcum has finished with a 1.16, 1.15, and 1.16 WHIP each of the last three seasons. 

Skeptics Say: Marcum had one quality start in his last seven starts including the playoffs. In fact, he was probably the main reason that the Brewers did not advance to the World Series. In those starts he gave up 34 earned runs in 34 innings. It leaves a very bad taste in your mouth heading into this season.
Also, the WHIP was nice last year, but given how the power in baseball has shifted to pitchers in recent years, it wasn't that great. Marcum's WHIP was tied with two others for 22nd in all of baseball. Hardly elite.  no comments

Key Stats: Howie Kendrick's infield fly ball percentage last season was 0.0% - nobody else in baseball did that last season. When he puts the ball in play, there's a great chance he's going to get a hit. When he puts the ball in play being the key part of that sentence. Kendrick had the worst strikeout rate of his career last season striking out more than 6% more than he did in 2010.  no comments

Key Stats: After an out of this world HR:FB rate of 19.8% in 2009, Adam Lind dropped to 13.3% in what turned out to be a very disappointing 2010 season. Last year it seemed Lind discovered the baby bear's porridge as his HR:FB rate finished at 17%. At that rate, he would have easily jacked 30 home runs if he had not missed 37 games.  no comments

Key Stats: Jhonny Peralta has not been a consistent source of much of anything since he became a full-time player in 2005 with the Indians. He's had three seasons with 15 or less home runs and 4 seasons with more than 20 home runs. A pretty significant difference when evaluating a player's value. He's also had two seasons with an aveage over .290 (including last year) and three seasons where the average fell under .260. He's never stolen more than four bases in any season either. Yet we live in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately society and Peralta is coming off a 2011 season in which he was 89th in the Yahoo player rater formula. And most of the peripherals weren't far away from the player he's been his whole career. The BABIP was a touch higher than we're used to seeing and the HR:FB% was actually a touch lower than his career rate (makes sense playing in Comerica). Chances are Peralta will come down a little from that 89th ranking, but he's 30 years old. He should be a starter in mixed leagues.  no comments