Key Stats: Where did Asdrubal Cabrera come from? His 2011 was a surprise, but there have been greater "whaaa" moments. Cabrera was only 25 last year, so the fact that he hadn't displayed the numbers he had last year before was reasonable. He had stolen 17 bases in a season before and while the home run numbers were nothing new, he did hit 42 doubles two seasons ago. Doubles turning into home runs is not a new phenomenon for guys as their careers evolve. In fact, if you look at the numbers there's reason to believe Cabrera could have actually been better. He has hit over .300 in a season before and last year was down to a .273 average. This happened despite a rise in his infield hit percentage last season. If the BABIP gods are kinder in 2012, there's no reason to think he can't be an above average average hitter according to the law of averages. Average. Just had to throw the word in one more time there.

Skeptics Say: Lee Corso would say not so fast my friends. The home run to fly ball rate ballooned to more than four times what it was in 2010. If I had to put a lock on some over/under numbers for players in 2011 versus their 2012 projections, I would take the under on Cabrera getting to 25 home runs again. It also seemed that pitchers made their adjustments to him last year. Cabrera hit just .244 in the second half and had a .280 OBP in September last year.  no comments

Key Stats: The player they nicknamed Big Game comes away from the 2011 season finally haveing some luck on his side. He set career bests in ERA (2.82), Wins (16), strikeout % (23.1%) and opponents AVG (.215). He cut his ERA nearly in half from 2010 despite advanced ERA measurements that were similar from the year before (xFIP, SIERA). Shields finished in the Top 10 in all of baseball in ERA, IP, Complete Games, Shut Outs, Strike Outs and WHIP.

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Key Stats: Look past the 21 wins he accumulated in 2011. Instead look at a pitcher who is 27 years old, who not only post a career high in Wins, but decreased his BB/9 by over 1 and his ERA by almost a run from the previous year. He increased his K/9 and the percentage of ground balls he gave up. Not only did he also proceed to give up less fly balls, but his HR/FB ratio dropped by 3%. 20 wins in 2012 is far from a guarantee, but there is no doubt all his supporting numbers moved in the right direction from years prior.

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Key Stats: Lance Berkman was in the process of dying a slow death after three straight years in decline and seeming incapable of even playing a DH role for the Yankees at the end of the 2010 season. The Cardinals took a low-risk chance at a guy that had tormented them for nine plus years, and it turned out to be the best find of the entire off-season. Berkman came out of the gates flying as the second best player in the month of April and finished the season ranked 32nd overall according to the Yahoo rankings. The key to his Comeback Player of the Year Award when comparing 2011 to 2010 was probably in the line drive rate and infield fly rate. The line drive rate went up by about 6% while the pop ups came down 7%. 

Skeptics Say: Who does this at age 35 in a post-steroid era? How do the Cardinals replace the loss of the best hitter in the game? Two tough answers, and I'm not sure there is a positive answer to either. That's why Berkman is ranked 3 times lower than where he ultimately finished last season. From a statistical perspective it is also important to note that Berkman had only 23 doubles last season. That's the same amount that he had in that abysmal 2010 season. One of Berkman's greatest strengths throughout his career has been getting doubles. He led the league twice in the category (at age 25 and 32). Given the jump in his home run to fly ball rate last year and the decrease in doubles relative to that increase, I would assume that the home runs are going to drop close to 25 this season.  no comments

Peer Comparison: 33 year old outfielders didn’t fare too well in baseball last year. There were 4 according to the stats filter on espn.com, and they aren’t  really an inspiring bunch: Juan Rivera, Jason Bay, Ryan Ludwick and Vernon Wells. Ethier’s power is similar to all of them (exception being Wells) but he will give you a better average and OBP than anyone in that group. This isn’t exactly an apples to apples comparison, but outfielders hitting their mid 30’s don’t usually discover a fountain of youth. Notice that (spoiler alert) none of those players are in our Top 162 players count down. A sign of things to come?

I botched that one. Ethier won't be 33, but looking at who is available at the outfield position, and who you can pick up around the same time that Ethier will go in drafts, I just can't justify getting someone who isn't a threat to steal bases, or hit homers at an above average level. Of the 63 qualified batters last year that were outfielders, only 15 hit as many or less homers than him, and of those guys 11 of them had double digit steals. The ones that didn't? Juan Rivera, John Jay, David DeJesus and Kosuke Fukudome. If you are going into battle starting any of them, then pray the bats on your opponents team all pull hammies.

Team Outlook: The Dodgers are a mess. New ownership is going to come in at some point, but they are kinda tied up until then. They haven’t added any major pieces, but they haven’t exactly lost any either, with the most notable departure being Kuroda (replaced by either Capuano or Harang.)

What They’re Saying: CBS Sportsline - #28 in the Top 80 Outfielders; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com - #54 in the Top 70 Outfielders & #190 in the Top 250 Players; RotoChamp - #110 in the Top 300 Players

Projection: Personally I’m looking for outfield help elsewhere this season. While I don’t think he is going to do as poorly as he did last season, if an outfielder isn’t going to deliver power or steals he has to bat better than .300, and his career numbers and trends don’t indicate that will happen either. Given the lack of significant moves the Dodgers made on offense, there isn’t promise his RBI or Runs totals will go up considerably from last season. My optimistic projection:

.286 AVG, 15 HR, 70 R, 75 RBI, 1 Steal, .362 OBP, .824 OPS in 590 ABs.

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Key Stats: Jason Heyward will break Hank Aaron’s record. In one season. Batting right-handed. The talk went something like that two years ago when Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, and Mike Stanton were all making a case to make their teams out of spring training. Only Heyward ultimately made it, and if the Braves had to do it over again perhaps they might have waited. The J-Hey Kid has fallen off quite a ways in two seasons from the prospect everyone thought he would be, but in no category has it been worse than batting average. He hit .316 and .323 as a minor leaguer in his 18 and 19-year-old seasons, but couldn’t get over .230 in limited last year.

Skeptics Say: Heyward had the 8^th highest groudball rate in baseball last season a season after having the 7^th highest groundball rate in baseball. The players that were higher are guys like Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, Michael Bourn, Ichiro, Cameron Maybin – great fantasy players by all means but not the guys that we would have thought Heyward would be compared to two years ago. Obviously his shoulder has been an issue, but this is not a shoulder issue. Even with perfect health, Heyward is hitting too many grounders. no comments

Key Stats: Ignore the position that Billy Butler plays for just a second and think of him exclusively as a utility player. He will help you in four categories and only seems like he’s been around forever. In the last three seasons, Butler has averaged this line: .303 AVG .370 OBP .844 OPS 18 HR 89 RBI 76 R

Perhaps most important is that he’s also averaged 159 games per season. That’s allowed him to be ranked in Yahoo’s top 100 for each of those last three seasons.

Skeptics Say: Now remember that he plays DH. Is a guy that can’t play any position, won’t guarantee you 20 home runs, or one steal going to go ahead of a shortstop that could steal thirty bases or hit twenty home runs? Tough call. And for what it’s worth Butler isn’t improving the way that we would typically like to see from a player in his mid 20s. His strikeouts and walks went in the wrong direction last year and as a result his average fell under .300 for the first time since 2008. no comments

Key Stats: When I think of Alex Gordon I think of the little engine that could. Not that Gordon is a small guy, at 6'2" and 220 the guy could break me (I'm 6'1" and 175, but probably have a higher percentage of fat). Gordon is the kind of player that people were always projecting for that breakout season that never came. He had power, speed, good defense... he could never get it all together at the major league level, he could never quite get all the way up that mountain. After 4 years of heart break Gordon delivered in a big way, giving us 22 HR, 96 Runs, 81 RBI and 17 steals. Add on a tasty .303 AVG and .376 OBP, and this is a 5 category stud that people scrambled for to claim off the waiver wire last year. 

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