Key Stats: Mike Napoli started only 102 games last year, but still came out as a top 60 overall player in the Yahoo rankings. He went to the DL in June with a strained oblique, but other than that was healthy for the rest of the regular season. And the numbers showed it. Napoli hit .443 in July and .383 in the second half last season. He smashed 18 home runs after the all-star break. You could make a case given the position scarcity that he was the most valuable player in fantasy baseball after the all-star break last season.

Skeptics Say: Game six of the World Series saw a pretty ugly injury to Napoli (as well as the most painful loss in Rangers history), and Napoli said the ankle still isn't 100%. He did claim that he could hit and throw fine, but that doesn't mean the injury will get worse if he pushes himself.  no comments

Key Stats: For the first time since the 1998 season, Alex Rodriguez failed to reach 30 and 100 last season. He played in only 99 games last season, but if he did stay healthy for 150 games, he was on pace for something close to 24 home runs and 93 RBI. Good for any player, but for A-Rod those numbers look like a whimper. Is the end near?

Skeptics Say: Don't look for motivation to come in the form of money. The Yankees have their hands tied for five more years after this season. A-Rod is now 36 years old, and if we are calling this the post-steroid era, virtually nobody produces at this point in their careers. The highest any player was ranked that was 36 or older last season was 117 (Johnny Damon).  no comments

Key Stats: Despite the up down up down ERA problems that have been plaguing Beckett the last six years, 2011 was as good as any he has had. His best K:BB ratio in 3 years paired with his highest fly ball rate since his 2002 rookie season paved the way for a ridiculously low .207 opponent batting average. 

Skeptics Say: Despite the great season, there are a lot of signs that point to him being lucky. Exhibt A - His 2.89 ERA is accompanied by a FIP and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.58 and his tERA and SIERA were 3.82 and 3.42, respectively. While half run differentials aren't deal breakers, they do show that for once Beckett had some good luck on his side. The aforementioned .207 opponent AVG was aided by a career best .242 BABIP. The high fly ball rate also came with a HR/FB rate of 9.6, his lowest since 2007. While the 13-7 record isn't sparkling, all the rest of the numbers point to 2011 being a "career" year for Beckett, and those types of seasons are tough to replicate.

no comments

Key Stats: Chase Utley reached first base via hit or walk 104 times last year. He wound up with 14 steals. He was stealing a base over 13% of the the time that he reached base. Despite the fact that Utley was 32 and has battled numerous injuries now, that is the highest percentage of steals per times at first base of his career. Charlie Manuel still trusts in this guy to let him run this frequently and Utley still has the ability to make things happen on the base paths. It's a sign that athletically his game is still there. 

Skeptics Say: He's always hurt and on the field hasn't shown much aside from the steals lately. The last two seasons, Utley has missed 47 and 59 games. His batting average over that time has dropped 28 points off of what his career average had been until the past two seasons. This season he will turn 33, so it is impossible to ignore the drop-off as bad luck or to call Utley too consistent to turn down.  no comments

Key Stats: On a June night in 2009 I was in a hotel room the night before my sisters wedding hanging out with family and friends. My cousin, who grew up and has lived in Pittsburgh nearly all his life was pumped not only for the wedding, but because his Penguins were in the Stanley Cup Finals. After the game, and celebration of winning the Cup, I asked him about the Pirates, and this kid McCutchen they had just called up. "What do you think?" I said. Have you seen him play?" "Dude is gonna be a star." he told me. 'Cutch finished that rookie year batting .286 over 108 games. He hit 12 HR's and stole 22 bases. He scored 74 runs on an inept Pirates team and things have just kept getting better. He repeated his .286 average over a full 2010 campaign, and scored nearly 100 runs. 2011 saw his first 20/20 season. This year, Eno Sarris says he can flirt with 30/30. 
no comments

Key Stats: Is it me, or does Aramis Ramirez get a bad rap? I feel like he is one of those guys that doesn't get any respect. I think there is a mythos about him that he is old and each year is the year that he is going to fall apart because he has been around forever. Truth be told though, when you come up and wear a major league uniform at 19 like Ramirez has, and you are going into your 15th season, you have to be doing something right. That something is bat .284 and average 21 HR's a year for your career. He is six years removed from a 30 HR season, but with the exception of an 82 game injury shortened 2009 he hasn't hit less than 25 in that span. I'll take that production matched with him moving to a more potent offense for '12.

no comments

Key Stats: The one thing that you can truly depend on from Carl Crawford in fantasy baseball is that whoever owned him last year does not want him this year. The easiest excuse for coming up short for a team is a failed first round draft pick and Crawford was the very definition of that last season. In a year when he was supposed to have a career high number of runs scored playing in a potent offense, Crawford set a new career low. He also set career lows in batting average, on-base percentage, and (oh this one really hurt) stolen bases. He was to fantasy players what Barry Zito is to the Giants. A useless anchor. 

Skeptics Say: It might not get better. The most obvious reason to cite for Crawford's failure last season was playing for a new team in a new environment. Obviously dealing with the pressure in Boston is much different from the pressure of Tampa, and perhaps Crawford isn't cut out for a large market team. And as he now moves toward his age 30 season, the question becomes is the end going to come faster for him than it would for the average player who doesn't rely on the tools that Crawford has. According to Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, Crawford is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. When a report like that comes out before Spring Training, shouldn't we expect it to be much worse than a game or two that he'll miss? no comments

Key Stats: Adam Wainwright is an ace pitcher. With the exception of the two innings that made up his 2005 season, Wainwright has never posted an ERA higher than 3.70, or a FIP above 3.90. He finished 3rd in the Cy Young Award voting in 2009 and 2nd in 2010. Things were lookin mighty fine for Adam Parish Wainwright going into 2011. Then he felt discomfort throwing BP, a week later he had Tommy John surgery and was out for the season. He recovered quickly though, and even petitioned for a spot on St. Louis' post season roster. He was denied ultimately, but to think that he felt he was healthy and recovered enough to pitch then can only mean good things for 2012, right?
no comments