Key Stats: Felix Hernandez saw his ERA rise from 2.27 in 2010 when he won the Cy Young Award to 3.47 last season. It is eye-popping, but probably something not worth worrying about. His xFIP went up by one one-hundredth of a point, his strikeout to walk rate was identical, and his K/9 actually rose last season.  Beyond the numbers, if you saw the guy pitch at all in 2010, the eye test says that he is still nasty. He is going to turn 26 in a month. I wouldn’t worry over an uptick in the ERA.

Skeptics Say: We have to be sort of picky with someone as good as King Felix, but his quality start percentage was tied for 25^th last season among qualifying starters. He also had an ERA of 3.91 in the second half. These are obvious signs of inconsistency something he did not have in 2011 when he led the league in quality start percentage. Just to be fair though, C.C. Sabathia was also 25^th in QS% last year, and if there was one word to describe him it would be consistent.
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As a reminder, my complete ranks can be found here...

Shortstop has elite talent, then some good players, then some also rans. If you can't get a top guy in the first 2 rounds, and don't want to spend a 4th or 5th round pick on someone who isn't going to produce at the same level as the other players going around them, prep to wait to get someone in the 10th round or later.

On to the notes!

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Key Stats: After hitting just 9 home runs in 2010, Ian Kinsler had some questions to answer in 2011. After hitting a career high 32 home runs in 2011, Kinser answered those questions. Kinsler had a career low HR:FB% in 2010 and a career low FB%. Last year those numbers essentially returned to his career average in both stats.
The reason that Kinsler hit a career high on an “average” season in terms of fly balls and home runs per fly ball is a result of playing in a career high 155 games and avoiding the DL for the first time in his career.

Skeptics Say: A player coming off a 30/30 season that isn’t an outfielder is usually an automatic first round choice. Kinsler though has his issues. First of all, there are those people that choose to think of last season’s healthy season as the exception rather than the rule. Secondly, Kinsler hurt teams with a .255 batting average last season. That average came despite a career low strikeout rate. Kinsler’s BABIP was only .243, but before we assume that his luck will turn around consider that this is the second time in three years Kinsler’s BABIP has fallen under .250. The other season that Kinsler had this happen to him was 2009. In that season, he also was a 30/30 player and had an average of .253. The poor average seems like a trend to me. no comments

Key Stats: Jose Reyes posted career highs in AVG, OBP and SLG last season. He notched a career best strikeout percentage (7.0%). Reyes returned to what he did best, which is put the ball in play, keep it out of the air, do damage with his speed. It was his contract year and it rewarded him handsomely. In the years he has had full seasons (at least 150 games) he has hit 17, 17, 12 and 19 triples. 2011 also saw him post career marks in contact rate, first pitch strike and swinging strike rates.

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Key Stats: Giancarlo Stanton smacked 34 home runs as a 21-year-old last year. I’d say he’s earned the chance to go for a new name. The numbers that he had last season at the age that he had it is worth comparing (see the peer comparison), but ignore the age. Stanton was 9^th in home runs last year, but trailed only Curtis Granderson and Jose Bautista in isolated power (both of those guys led baseball).  The average distance of a ball off his bat went 322 feet – best in all of baseball. Stanton could lead all of baseball in home runs this season at age 22.

Skeptics Say: There’s still a lot that remains to be seen. Stanton struck out 27.6% of the time last year. That was second worst among qualifying outfielders. Obviously that impacts batting average where Stanton was a liability last season. And while I respect Jack McKeon’s baseball acumen, Stanton stealing 30 bases is out of the question. no comments

Key Stats: There is currently only one other third baseman in baseball who is the 5 category threat that David Wright can be, and he has a total of 171 plate appearances in his career. The strikeouts may be a concern, but last year in only 104 games he still hit 14 HR's and gave us 60+ Runs and RBI. In 2010 he was a 5 category monster with a triple slash line of .283/.354/.503. At the top of his game David Wright is a .300 batter that can threaten 30 HR, 100 RBI, 80 Runs and steal 20 bags. The fences are moving in at Citi and it's not going to be the pitchers haven it used to be. 

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Key Stats: The 160 innings that the Nationals have set as a hard innings cap on Stephen Strasburg has thrown a wrench in this ranking. When I originally developed these rankings back in October, I had assumed that Strasburg would be throwing somewhere closer to 180 or 190 innings which is still less than a number one or two starter. What the Nationals are doing obviously make sense though. Strasburg has only been a pro for two seasons (really it's closer to one factoring in the time he missed with TJ Surgery) and given that the most he's thrown in any one season is 115 innings the Nationals plan would appear to make sense. 

Skeptics Say: We've seen pitchers with phenomenal talent before who just couldn't stay on the mound every fifth day. Strasburg has more hype and talent than even Mark Prior did coming out of USC, but that doesn't mean that his career is going to take a different path than Prior. Hopefully for baseball and fantasy sake, this guy can stay healthy because from what we've seen so far he can be the most exciting player in baseball. There's nothing to question when he is on the mound, but getting there is the issue that will force people to think twice before selecting him this season.  no comments

Key Stats: Tim Linecum did not finish with a winning record last year despite having an ERA under 3.00. It’s unusual, but far from unprecedented. Since 2000, there have been 92 pitchers that have had an ERA under 3.00 and qualified for the ERA title. Six of them (including Lincecum last season) have had a losing record. The others were Doug Fister (2011), Jake Peavy (2008), Kevin Millwood (2005), Ben Sheets (2004), and Curt Schilling (2003).

Lincecum had 7 quality starts result in losses and also had three no decisions that he gave up 1 or fewer runs.

Skeptics Say: For the third straight season the cumulative strikeout total dropped for The Freak. He still has a strong strikeout rate, but that has also dropped four straight years. His average fastball actually was 1 MPH quicker last year and his average change up did not change. It would appear he had the stuff to get more strikeouts, but the numbers didn’t work that way. Hitter adjustments and pitch movement are likely reasons, but in any case Lincecum doesn’t possess first round stuff anymore with his K rate where it is. no comments