Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove
Key Stats: What a difference protection in the lineup makes... Pence was having a solid all-around year before a July trade freed him from the quad A squad in Houston. The power numbers were down slightly, only 11 HR's and a .163 ISO (his lowest ever) through 100 games with the Astros, but once he reached the city of Brotherly Love he was a new man, equaling his HR's to that point and producing a .234 ISO and a .954 OPS in 54 games down the stretch. We can't say the ballpark played a factor last year as according to statcorner.com both Citizens Bank Park and Minute Maid Park are extremely favorable to the long ball off right handed bats.
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Key Stats: Since his first full season in 2006 Howard has averaged a staggering 43 HR's a year. He has the most HR's over that time with 262 and it isn't even close (Albert Pujols is 2nd with 244). In that same 6 year stretch he has 796 RBI, once again, tops in that time, and also, once again, the 2nd place Pujols is left in the dust with a paltry (in comparison) 708 RBI's. Power production has never been an issue for Howard, and even when he is batting in the .250's we haven't cared since 30 HR's and 100 RBI's were automatic.
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Key Stats: Like many young pitchers tend to do, David Price gained better command of the strikezone in his second Major League season. The walks went down and the strikeouts went up, but despite this his ERA rose by three quarters of a run. That is why sometimes ERA isn't the best way to gauge a pitcher's performance. His xFIP, FIP, and WAR were all better in 2011 than they were in 2010, so although fantasy folks would tell you he had a down year it was really a better season.
Skeptics Say: All the numbers look great at the end of the season, but going game by game Price's season wasn't at all spectacular. His quality start percentage was tied for 46th among starters with at least 100 innings last year. That's a big part of the reason why he finished with more losses than wins and a reason to be concerned about taking him as one of the first twelve starting pitchers off the board next year. no comments
Skeptics Say: All the numbers look great at the end of the season, but going game by game Price's season wasn't at all spectacular. His quality start percentage was tied for 46th among starters with at least 100 innings last year. That's a big part of the reason why he finished with more losses than wins and a reason to be concerned about taking him as one of the first twelve starting pitchers off the board next year. no comments
Paul McCartney's Yesterday was voted to be the best pop song of all time by Rolling Stone. The line "Yesterday... love was such an easy game to play. Now I need a place to hide away. Oh, I believe in yesterday." can be applied to baseball. There are dozens of guys that played the game with such ease one year, then fell flat on their face the next, and I would guess wish they were right back to where they were when things were going right. Using McCartney's ballad as inspiration, we take a look at those guys and try to figure out what is in store next for them.
In 2008 the Pirates that the #2 pick overall in the June Amateur draft and used that pick on Pedro Alvarez. After a lost 2008 due to a contract dispute, Alvarez finally got on the field in 2009 and at 22 years old hit 27 HR's and batted .288 across advanced A and AA. He didn't slow down in 2010 and smacked 13 more HR in 66 AAA games, then got the call, and played 95 games with the Pirates. He hit 16 HR's and batted .306 in Sept/Oct that year. A legend was born. The Pirates had their HR threat to drive in McCutchen and Walker.
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In 2008 the Pirates that the #2 pick overall in the June Amateur draft and used that pick on Pedro Alvarez. After a lost 2008 due to a contract dispute, Alvarez finally got on the field in 2009 and at 22 years old hit 27 HR's and batted .288 across advanced A and AA. He didn't slow down in 2010 and smacked 13 more HR in 66 AAA games, then got the call, and played 95 games with the Pirates. He hit 16 HR's and batted .306 in Sept/Oct that year. A legend was born. The Pirates had their HR threat to drive in McCutchen and Walker.
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Key Stats: Mike Napoli started only 102 games last year, but still came out as a top 60 overall player in the Yahoo rankings. He went to the DL in June with a strained oblique, but other than that was healthy for the rest of the regular season. And the numbers showed it. Napoli hit .443 in July and .383 in the second half last season. He smashed 18 home runs after the all-star break. You could make a case given the position scarcity that he was the most valuable player in fantasy baseball after the all-star break last season.
Skeptics Say: Game six of the World Series saw a pretty ugly injury to Napoli (as well as the most painful loss in Rangers history), and Napoli said the ankle still isn't 100%. He did claim that he could hit and throw fine, but that doesn't mean the injury will get worse if he pushes himself. no comments
Skeptics Say: Game six of the World Series saw a pretty ugly injury to Napoli (as well as the most painful loss in Rangers history), and Napoli said the ankle still isn't 100%. He did claim that he could hit and throw fine, but that doesn't mean the injury will get worse if he pushes himself. no comments
Key Stats: For the first time since the 1998 season, Alex Rodriguez failed to reach 30 and 100 last season. He played in only 99 games last season, but if he did stay healthy for 150 games, he was on pace for something close to 24 home runs and 93 RBI. Good for any player, but for A-Rod those numbers look like a whimper. Is the end near?
Skeptics Say: Don't look for motivation to come in the form of money. The Yankees have their hands tied for five more years after this season. A-Rod is now 36 years old, and if we are calling this the post-steroid era, virtually nobody produces at this point in their careers. The highest any player was ranked that was 36 or older last season was 117 (Johnny Damon). no comments
Skeptics Say: Don't look for motivation to come in the form of money. The Yankees have their hands tied for five more years after this season. A-Rod is now 36 years old, and if we are calling this the post-steroid era, virtually nobody produces at this point in their careers. The highest any player was ranked that was 36 or older last season was 117 (Johnny Damon). no comments
Key Stats: Despite the up down up down ERA problems that have been plaguing Beckett the last six years, 2011 was as good as any he has had. His best K:BB ratio in 3 years paired with his highest fly ball rate since his 2002 rookie season paved the way for a ridiculously low .207 opponent batting average.
Skeptics Say: Despite the great season, there are a lot of signs that point to him being lucky. Exhibt A - His 2.89 ERA is accompanied by a FIP and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.58 and his tERA and SIERA were 3.82 and 3.42, respectively. While half run differentials aren't deal breakers, they do show that for once Beckett had some good luck on his side. The aforementioned .207 opponent AVG was aided by a career best .242 BABIP. The high fly ball rate also came with a HR/FB rate of 9.6, his lowest since 2007. While the 13-7 record isn't sparkling, all the rest of the numbers point to 2011 being a "career" year for Beckett, and those types of seasons are tough to replicate.
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Skeptics Say: Despite the great season, there are a lot of signs that point to him being lucky. Exhibt A - His 2.89 ERA is accompanied by a FIP and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.58 and his tERA and SIERA were 3.82 and 3.42, respectively. While half run differentials aren't deal breakers, they do show that for once Beckett had some good luck on his side. The aforementioned .207 opponent AVG was aided by a career best .242 BABIP. The high fly ball rate also came with a HR/FB rate of 9.6, his lowest since 2007. While the 13-7 record isn't sparkling, all the rest of the numbers point to 2011 being a "career" year for Beckett, and those types of seasons are tough to replicate.
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Key Stats: Chase Utley reached first base via hit or walk 104 times last year. He wound up with 14 steals. He was stealing a base over 13% of the the time that he reached base. Despite the fact that Utley was 32 and has battled numerous injuries now, that is the highest percentage of steals per times at first base of his career. Charlie Manuel still trusts in this guy to let him run this frequently and Utley still has the ability to make things happen on the base paths. It's a sign that athletically his game is still there.
Skeptics Say: He's always hurt and on the field hasn't shown much aside from the steals lately. The last two seasons, Utley has missed 47 and 59 games. His batting average over that time has dropped 28 points off of what his career average had been until the past two seasons. This season he will turn 33, so it is impossible to ignore the drop-off as bad luck or to call Utley too consistent to turn down. no comments
Skeptics Say: He's always hurt and on the field hasn't shown much aside from the steals lately. The last two seasons, Utley has missed 47 and 59 games. His batting average over that time has dropped 28 points off of what his career average had been until the past two seasons. This season he will turn 33, so it is impossible to ignore the drop-off as bad luck or to call Utley too consistent to turn down. no comments
Key Stats: On a June night in 2009 I was in a hotel room the night before my sisters wedding hanging out with family and friends. My cousin, who grew up and has lived in Pittsburgh nearly all his life was pumped not only for the wedding, but because his Penguins were in the Stanley Cup Finals. After the game, and celebration of winning the Cup, I asked him about the Pirates, and this kid McCutchen they had just called up. "What do you think?" I said. Have you seen him play?" "Dude is gonna be a star." he told me. 'Cutch finished that rookie year batting .286 over 108 games. He hit 12 HR's and stole 22 bases. He scored 74 runs on an inept Pirates team and things have just kept getting better. He repeated his .286 average over a full 2010 campaign, and scored nearly 100 runs. 2011 saw his first 20/20 season. This year, Eno Sarris says he can flirt with 30/30.
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Key Stats: Is it me, or does Aramis Ramirez get a bad rap? I feel like he is one of those guys that doesn't get any respect. I think there is a mythos about him that he is old and each year is the year that he is going to fall apart because he has been around forever. Truth be told though, when you come up and wear a major league uniform at 19 like Ramirez has, and you are going into your 15th season, you have to be doing something right. That something is bat .284 and average 21 HR's a year for your career. He is six years removed from a 30 HR season, but with the exception of an 82 game injury shortened 2009 he hasn't hit less than 25 in that span. I'll take that production matched with him moving to a more potent offense for '12.
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