My latest article for The Outside Corner focused on the surprising start of the New York Mets. Here are the bits that might be of interest for fantasy owners...

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Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano are having big-time bounce-back seasons for the Dodgers, rewarding management for investing in each pitcher for more than just one season. They have also rewarded fantasy owners quick enough to snag them off of the wire or draft them as late round sleepers. Can their surprise seasons continue? Here's what I wrote about the two in an article for The Outside Corner...

"...in the case of both pitchers, their K/BB ratios are right around league average, which suggests that they might not be able to maintain their current level of performance. Harang is more likely to continue with his comeback season, given his move away from Great American Ballpark and into the expansive fences of Dodger Stadium. His HR/9 has dropped and he’s striking out about one more hitter per nine innings than he did last season. Capuano is still allowing over one home run per nine innings pitched, but he is also striking out almost eight batters per nine innings and has managed to strand 80 percent of his baserunners. That strand rate is about seven percent above the league average and his career average, which means that a regression is very possible and there is a good chance more of his baserunners allowed will come in to score in the second half."

Though Capuano is in line for a regression, he should continue to post an above average strikeout rate as long as he's healthy. Given his sub-three ERA, now is a good time to see what you can get for him, but he's certainly not a throw in peice at this point. When I wrote that Harang "is more likely to continue with his comeback season," I meant that his current level of performance (mid-to-high-threes ERA, which is good, but not great like Capuano's current numbers) is reasonable to expect going forawrd, unlike Capuano, who could regress to a mid-threes ERA before long.

Brandon Belt collected a hit in his fifth straight game last night and had a walk for the third time in five games. Previously his longest hitting streak was 3 games this season. That's because he has often been asked to come up as a pinch hitter, and has never been a consistent presence in the lineup. Fortunately for Belt, Aubrey Huff has been worse than anyone could have ever imagined and as his luck would have it Huff pulled a Kendry Morales during the Matt Cain perfect game. Belt is finally getting a chance, and this might be the week we look back on as the week that Belt finally arrived. 

Belt was homerless, but broke out with homers in three consecutive games to start the mini hit streak he is currently on. Perhaps the most significant part of the barrage is that all three home runs came against lefties. That will make it even harder for Huff or any member of the Giants to eventually replace Belt in a platoon role. Finding free agents that will stay on a roster for the duration of a season is harder to do at this time of the year in mixed leagues, but it would appear that Belt has the potential to do that. He should be rostered if he is avaialble.

With the lack of anything "significant" in baseball yesterday (I'm looking at YOU Matt Weiters. We've been expecting you to get 4 hits and 5 RBI's in games for 3 years.) I decdied to go with the recomendation of stashing Wil Myers. I posted a couple days ago that the Royals GM said that he might sit in AAA until early next year, but I also speculated that could have been GM gamesmanship. Well, the other shoe fell. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that the Royals are looking to trade Jeff Francouer, opening a spot in RF for Myers, which his limited and range and strong arm are a better fit for than the CF he has been playing this season. Francouer doesn't have a ton of value, but perhaps the A's will be willing to grab him?

In ESPN leagues, Myers already has his OF designation, but those of you in Yahoo! formats will get to reap the potential benefits of a call up while using him at Catcher until he gains his OF eligibility, then of course, continue to use him at catcher until he loses the designation next season.

Last summer when the Indians dealt for Ubaldo Jimenez, there is no doubt they felt like they were acquiring a young front line starter.  That hasn't been the case yet.  Jimenez made 11 starts for the Tribe last year, and posted an ugly 5.10 ERA.  Advanced metrics suggested he was unlucky, with his xFIP, FIP, tERA, and SIERA sitting in the high three range.  He was striking batters out and keeping the ball on the ground, but his walk rate of 3.72 BB/9 was a smidge on the high side of acceptable.  If you look at Jimenez's career, walks have always been a part of his game, and the rest of his skill set has helped him pitch well in spite of them.  This season, the wheels have fallen off the bus for Jimenez, and his ERA sits at 4.91, and he has nearly as many walks, 43 (none intentional), as strikeouts, 44, in 69.2 innings pitched.  In his last two starts, though, he has issued just one walk, while striking out 11 in 13.2 innings.  Has he righted the ship?

Matt Cain not only threw the first perfect game in Giants history last night, but he did so in dominating fashion, striking out 14 batters in the process. Sandy Koufax is the only pitcher to accumulate that many K's in a perfecto. As rare a feat as a perfect game is (this is the 22nd in MLB history), and as stated, only the 2nd time it was "as" perfect, should we be surprised by it? It's certainly something to behold, but it was Matt Cain. The same Matt Cain who was given the richest contract all time for a right handed pitcher. It should stand to reason that if someone is going to be the highest paid all time at a position, that he should do something extraordinary. Mission accomplished. And as good as his performance was last night, it wasn't the most surprising. 

The most surprising performance of the night goes to a Mr. R.A. Dickey. Before you jump all over me and my Met's fan bias, hear me out. He didn't walk a batter. That alone is amazing. A knuckle baller not walking anyone. But it gets better. He faced two batters over the minimum. The first batter reached on a questionable scoring decision (hit, could have been ruled an error) in the first inning. The 2nd batter reached on a throwing error in the 9th. Dickey had no wild pitches, or passed balls...until the 9th inning, when Mike Nickeas allowed two to get by him letting the runner to advance to 3rd, then score on a grounder to short. He also struck out 12. So there you have it, complete game, 1 hit, 0 walks, 12 K's 0 earned runs, obviously coming out of it with a win. During the game, Dickey also set a Mets record throwing 34.2 consecutive scoreless innings. So this wasn't just a dominating game, this has been a dominating stretch. Over his last 5 games, he is 5-0, with a 0.23 ERA and a K:BB of 50:3. I'm not Elias, but I would venture that a knuckle baller has never been as dominant as he is right now. The thing is he doesn't just have a knuckle ball. He has three knuckle balls, technically it's one, but he changes speeds with it from anywhere in the high 60's to low 80's. He can throw a fastball in the 80's too. There is just too much to keep a hitter off balance. Dickey was just traded in my NL only league 1 for 1 for Andre Ethier to give you an idea for what his trade value might be at the moment.

I was reading a Jayson Stark story on ESPN last week about 5 teams in baseball that were shocking, either good or bad. Story can be read here. In any case, aside from going over my beloved Mets, he mentions the Tigers, and how much of a disappointment they have been this year. He specifically says (in regards to their awful defense and injury problems):

"...it certainly doesn't explain why their closer, that thrill-a-minute Jose Valverde, could have had zero blown saves, a 2.24 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP last year -- and now has three blown saves, a 4.24 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP this year." 

And he is right, the defense and injuries have nothing to do with Valverde's regression. It has everything to do with he just wasn't that good. In preseason a lot of fantasy writers were calling out for Valverde to regress, and not just a little. How did we figure this out? Peripheral stats...

On the day of Liriano's start against the Chicago Cubs, now seems as good of time as any to take a look at his hot last two starts.  After a short stint in the bullpen to right the ship, he has come out guns blazing.  In his last two starts, he has pitched 12 innings allowing one earned run, walking three and striking out 17.  Those two starts have helped him lower his ERA and WHIP to 6.46 and 1.74 respectively.  As those numbers would suggest, he was putrid to start the year.  So what should owners make of Liriano's recent run?