If Theo Epstein hopes to become the ultimate curse buster, he and General Manager Jed Hoyer will need to build the Cubs from the ground up with a strong farm system. The team has infused the minor league system with talent through trade and the draft in the last 12 months. There is talent here, but most of it has warts of one form or another. no comments

Before last season, I had touted Seth Smith as somewhat of an undervalued asset to fantasy baseball players. He was on many of my teams in which the league stretched to 14-plus teams and, for a good part of the season, he was a borderline top 100 fantasy player. He had too really bad months, July and September, which unfortunately brought his overall numbers down.

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Key Stats: C.J. Wilson was a top 50 player in fantasy baseball last year playing in the worst pitcher's park in all of baseball according to ESPN Park Factors. Now he goes to the OC and the park that was 27th in all of baseball in terms of runs by Park Factors. In three starts at Angel Stadium last year, Wilson had an 0.53 ERA. During the last two seasons his ERA has been significantly worse at home than it has been on the road. This switch was perfect. 

Skeptics Say: He is coming off of a contract year in which he got a really big contract. Between finding a new house and finding a way to spend his new found wealth, how much time did he spend getting in shape for a season? There's a reason that players typically dip after a contract year and Wilson could be another example of that this season. 

Key Stats: Freddie Freeman would have been the Rookie of the Year last season were it not for his teammate being the best closer in all of baseball. Freeman played in 157 games last year and given his youth injuries are unlikely to crop up again this season. He was inconsistent at times which is often a negative word, but in fantasy baseball inconsistent can also mean that he carries teams for stretches of time. That was the case last July when Freeman was the 13th best player in that month and had a .433 OBP. That said his September was not nearly as good. That could have been caused by a number of factors including hitting the rookie wall, the pressure of avoiding a historic collapse, and the lineup around him fading. 

Skeptics Say: Freeman doesn't hit lefties very well. The difference in average against lefties was about 50 points last season. Situational lefties will get their work in against him late in games, so hopefully he isn't bunched in the lineup with another lefty such as Jason Heyward so teams have to pick their spots of when they have guys face Freeman. 

Freeman also doesn't have the best plate discipline. It is hardly unusual for a 21-year-old, but it's worth noting that he had the 21st best strikeout to walk rate among first basemen last season. 

Our 2012 keeper rankings focus on leagues that must gage the value of players for at least the next 3-5 years.

C – 1B – 2B – 3B – SS – OF – DH – SP - CL

First base is a deep fantasy position and features a nice group of young up-and-comers that should see their spot on these rankings increase with each passing season. Here are our top 34 first base keepers…

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The Cardinals reached the pinnacle in winning the World Series in 2011. That was followed up by the sobering reality that Albert Pujols would no longer be donning their uniform after signing with the Angels. On the bright side, the team has a number of high ceiling players down on the farm.

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Key Stats: Petco Park was the third best park to pitch in last year according to ESPN park factors, but Mat Latos didn't benefit all that much from pitching in Petco last year. His HR:FB% was actually kinder away from Petco last year which is why Chris Cwik of RotoGraphs thinks that Latos to Cincinnati doesn't really move his value at all. He'll be pitching for a better team in a tougher environment for a pitcher. 

Skeptics Say: For the record his ERA and WHIP were both better at home last year. Virtually everyone who knows anything about fantasy baseball will be forecasting that Latos will go over his 3.47 ERA and 1.18 WHIP next season. 

Earlier today, I participated in my first mock draft of the new year. Justin Occhionero of SonsOfRoto.com and myself hosted and drafted alongside some other writers and readers.

As an experiment, I decided to “play it blind” meaning I did not have my rankings sheets in front of me. It was an interesting exercise, but I did lose track of position depth at certain points, which left me a bit thin at closer and with some risk in my outfield. As normal, I couldn’t pull the trigger early on pitching and missed out on some of my top targets there. I ended up filling some thin positions early, which in a real league might have me in a favorable position to make one or two pre-season trades.

I drafted tenth out of 12. Positions were: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF (4), UT, P (9), BN (2). He’s my team’s breakdown…

(You can view the overall results here)

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