Our 2013 projections turn to the north side of Chicago where we examine two Cubs with plate discipline issues, but also significant upside. Can Alfonso Soriano stave off a regression at his age? Can Starlin Castro make a big progression at his age?

In somewhat of a surprise move, the Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly inked outfielder Melky Cabrera to a two-year, $16M deal. Now finished with his 50-game suspension for PED use, questions remain about his performance going forward, but it's skill related stats -- not questions about strenght/endurance -- that keep me optimistic.

Fantasy owners won't be looking at any of these pitchers early in 2013 drafts, but is there any hidden value here, or is staying away the best decision?

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The World Series is over and for the standard redraft roto GMs out there, the season has been over for even longer. However, the end of the fall classic brings about an entirely different roto beast: The Keeper Leaguers!

Deciding on who to keep, what values can you get in trades, what positions do you need to upgrade and all at what cost? Oh, yeah, and prospects -- the great unknown! -- who is for real and who is the next Brandon Wood (sorry Brandon, I'm still not over you). It's a complicated decision making game almost (if not) more complex than the regular fantasy baseball season. And keeper league GMs LOVE IT!

I'm in a great keeper league --10 teams, OBP instead of AVG, deep enough rosters that there is still plenty of skill involved in in-season pickups -- and I have found that this league LOVES to trade. After all, acting like a real GM while the real GMs are meeting in California is part of the fantasy. While it is rare that we see star players being traded for star players in this day-and-age, our keeper leagues allow us to do just that. Troy Tulowitski for Jason Heyward? Sure! Michael Bourn for Wil Meyers? Why not?

However, one thing that I have found throughout the years is that I just don't go trade crazy over the winter. There are a few reasons for this, and reasons that might end up saving your fantasy kepeer league team in the long-run...

We continue on with our 2012 Astros projections (see part one here). Warning: Astros fans may want to turn their heads.

Key: SSS = Small Sample Size (too small of a big league sample to make a judgement)

 

Matt Dominguez - 3B - HOU

2013 Age: 23 - Splits: SSS

2013 Projection: 487 AB, .224/.293/.393, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 41 R, 0 SB

Notes: What do you get when you a see player with a career minor league slash line of .256/.323/.409 hit .284 with 5 HR in only 113 plate appearances in his first major league action? False advertising. While Dominguez is only 23 and was once seen as a top prospect, his HR/FB rate of 20% will not hold over a full season and his lack of plate discipline will ultimately hurt his full season numbers. He's worth a late flyer in deeper formats, but don't bet on his small sample from 2012.

 

Brett Wallace - 1B - HOU

2013 Age: 26 - Splits: None, but small sample vs LHP

2013 Projection: .257/.328/.435, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 44 R, 1 SB

Notes: Wallace may have been a first round draft pick, and he may have a solid minor league slash line, but at 26 years of age he certainly looks like a quad-A bat. There is very little value or optimism here unless your league counts him as 3B eligible. Even if that were the case, I'm not on board.

 

Jason Castro - C - HOU

2013 Age: 25 - Splits: SSS, but has looked very bad vs LHP

2013 Projection: 410 AB, .262/.340/.412, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 35 R, 0 SB

Notes: Castro is what everyone thought he would be when the Astros drafted him in the first round in 2008: A solid big league catcher with good on-base skills and little else. He's a low-end play in OBP leagues due to solid walk rate, but has little-to-no upside in power.

 

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This offseason I'm going to focus on my projections above anything else. I'll be working my way through team-by-team, worst regular season record to best record. So that means we start with the newest addition to the American League, the Houston Astros.

Notes: After coming over in a preseason trade between the Astros and Red Sox, Lowrie made sure he got on the good side of Houston's fans hitting .297/.384/.422 in April followed by .275/.339/.520 with six home runs in May. However, his stats began to fall off in June before a July ankle injury threw the rest of his season off kilter. Lowrie showed almost no power once returning to action, so we can make the assumption that a healthy Lowrie could hit 20-plus home runs over a full season. The problem in projecting that outcome is that Lowrie has just never been able to stay healthy over the course of a baseball season. AVG wise, Lowrie simply hits too many fly balls (50-percent for his career) and struggles from the left side of the plate. 

The Arizona Fall League (AFL) has announced the rosters for the Rising Stars game. The game will be played on Saturday night, and televised on MLB Network starting at 8 p.m. ET. In advance of the game, I'll be highlighting a few prospects from each team below.

Picking up where we left off...