Recently, I unveiled the 2012 RAW Pitcher Ratings, preseason edition. The goal of these ratings is to strip away stats like ERA, WHIP and wins and focus on the raw skills evident in the numbers (strikeout rate, whiff rate, groundball rate, etc…). Some players, however, are destined to outperform or under perform their RAW Pitcher Ratings.

Jeremy Hellickson: 48.51 RAW in 2011, which puts him between Anthony Swarzak and John Lannan on the list.

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RAW Pitcher Ratings are back! The goal of these ratings is to show the raw skills a given pitcher presented regardless of the outcome in terms of ERA, WHIP or wins. In other words, Zack Greinke's ERA from 2011 might be unimpressive, but his rate stats look extremely impressive. It's important to note that these ratings show what a pitched has done, not necessarily what he will do. I'll cover that in more detail this week and look at the pitchers most likely perform better or worse than their RAW Pitcher Ratings indicate.

Indian’s closer Chris Perez has been sidelined early in spring training by a strained oblique, though it is being reported that he expects to be good to go by opening day. Whether or not Perez is indeed ready to go, Indians manager Manny Acta has already named his replacement. Should Perez remain injured or should he once again post a sub-par 1.5 K/BB ratio, but not receive the aide of a .234 BABIP in 2012, it’s the name Vinnie Pestano that fantasy owners will flock to the free agent wire to find.

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Today at Fire Brand AL, I posted my 2012 projections for Dustin Pedroia. Check it out! no comments

Key Stats: Dan Uggla saved his season from July 5^th through August 15^th last year with a 33-game hitting streak. Without that hot stretch Uggla would have finished last year with a .194 batting average. As it were his average was still weighted heavily to the times that he wasn’t on a 33-game hitting streak last year as he hit just .236 for the season. Streaks are a part of baseball though, so looking at his final line last year we saw once again what makes Dan Uggla a top tier second baseman year in and year out. For the sixth straight season he finished with 27 or more home runs, more than 80 runs, and more than 80 RBI.

Skeptics Say: The 36 home runs was a career high, but the batting average and the doubles were both career lows. Uggla almost doubled the amount of pop-ups he had a season ago and also had a career worst line drive rate. Meanwhile his home run to fly ball rate was a career worst. In other words, simply chalking up Uggla’s subpar season (according to his own standards) as poor luck would be completely incorrect. Even after his hot streak, his September numbers were slightly down in the average category from where he has always been. His problems might be deeper than just adjusting to the Braves and Atlanta. no comments

The Texas Rangers have graduated some talent from their farm system over the years, and they have another talented wave on the way. They have talent up the middle, starting with their top prospect. They also have some intriguing lively arms. Most of their best hitters are in the low minors, but they should prove worth the wait.

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Key Stats: Upon seeing where other sites are ranking Michael Pineda after the way he started in his rookie season, I am very surprised that he’s not being ranked higher. Pineda came out of the gates flying last year as a top 50 player in both April and May – only four other starting pitchers accomplished that. He was deservedly (unlike 50% of the players) selected to the all-star game as a result of his first half. And yes, Pineda did limp to the finish, but his batting average against was still just .236 to go along with a respectable 1.22 WHIP after the all-star game. He is going to be 23 this year –he should improve on everything in year two.

Skeptics Say:  As a Pineda owner I painfully had to absorb one blow after another to my rotisserie ERA in an AL-Only league. After he gave up about 1 home run every 7 innings in that second half it was pretty clear that either the league had caught up to him or he was exhausted. If it was the former it’s now Pineda’s turn to play catch up.

There’s also the obvious move from Seattle to New York. In addition to playing in a bigger market where expectations for him are to be the guy that puts the Yankees to the next level, he has to adjust to the dimensions of right field in Yankee Stadium. According to Park Factors, Yankee Stadium was the 6^th best park for runs and Safeco Field was 26^th last year. no comments

Key Stats: Matt Cain threw less fastballs than he’s ever thrown last season. He threw fastballs 8.5% less fastballs than he had in 2010. The result was a career high number of groundballs and a career low number of fly balls against him. In the end his strikeout and walk rates didn’t change too significantly, but his ERA was as low as it has ever been.

Skeptics Say: The pitch that Cain turned to most frequently in lieu of the fastball was his slider. The last time Cain threw the slider for such a high percentage of his overall pitches was in 2007. He followed that season up with the worst WHIP of his career (1.36). Although the number of sliders wasn’t alarmingly high, it was more than the norm and the stress it puts on a pitchers arm is difficult to measure over the long term. For as great as he’s been at making 30-plus starts every season, it’s always something worth watching. no comments