Key Stats: 2011 was the first time since Holliday's rookie season in 2004 that he didn't bat .300. His 22 HR and 75 RBI were his lowest totals since 2005 and 2004, respectfully. All is forgiven though since he was hurt part of the season and also appeared in (notice the theme) the least amount of games since his rookie season. If he had appeared in a full season's worth of games, while he may not have come close to career highs in those categories, 90 RBI's and 27 HR's wouldn't have been out of the question.  

Skeptics Say: We've reached a point in the countdown where everyone being profiled now is good. Really, really good. Holliday's down year, as pointed out before, was due to injury. His K% did jump up 5% but his walk rate was also up over 1% from 2010 as well. His ISO went up nine points. It's not uncommon for a player to strike out more at the expense of hitting more HR's, which contrary to the final outcomes, Holliday did at a more prolific rate in 2011 (18.5% HR/FB)than he did in 2010 (13.5% HR/FB). 

Peer Comparison: Matt Holliday is 1 of only 7ish active outfielders to have a batting average over .300 in the 7 year span of his career (2004-2011). The others are Ichiro Suzuki, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero. Suzuki isn't going ahead of Holliday in drafts, and I almost don't want to include Manny and Guerrero on the list since they are really just trying to hang on at this point. In any case, Ellsbury and Braun are a different type of player than Holliday and are also 1st round picks. Hamilton is the closest match here, and on my rankings they are a coin flip. Spoiler alert, I have Hamilton 11th and Holliday 12th in our soon to be released outfield position ranks. They are virtually identical players, with Hamilton getting the edge in steals, however Holliday (historically) isn't the injury risk Hamilton is.

Lineup Outlook: The Cards are short a Pujols, but if Berkman, who is taking over 1st, has any 2011 magic left, and if Beltran (taking over RF) can bat .285-.300 again with 20 HR's, they shouldn't miss him too much. They have done what they can to replace the best hitter in the game, and they didn't do too badly.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline - #10 Outfielder; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com - #14 Outfielder & #45 Overall; RotoChamp - #47 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP - #11 Outfielder and #37 Overall

Projection: A full healthy slate from Holliday will being him back to the production we expect of him.

.308 AVG, 26 HR's, 95 RBI, 86 Runs, 5 Steals, .385 OBP, .910 OPS in 560 AB's.

Key Stats: C.C. Sabathia finished last season with 230 strikeouts. It was the second highest total of his career (his best came when he worked as a laborer and not a pitcher with the Brewers). That put him 4^th in that category last season after being 14^th in 2010 - a pretty significant jump for a veteran player.

Skeptics Say: Using the eye ball test, I’m not going to mention the fact that C.C. throws too many innings or is too heavy to stay on the mound. He’s been pitching a lot of innings on a lot of pounds for a lot of years. If nothing breaks why fix it? Sabathia is going to be among the league leaders in wins and he won’t hurt you in any other stat. The one thing to watch is his WHIP which was up a touch for the fourth consecutive year. Year to year he fluctuates very little (with last year being slightly better than the couple before), so there’s not a whole lot of noise needed from those that don’t believe. no comments

The Red Sox minor league talent is spread across all levels. It was a toss up for the top spot between a big league ready bat that will likely open the year in Triple-A, and an exciting power hitting infielder that is a few years away. If your preference if for hitters, enjoy the Red Sox organizational top five, as not a single pitcher can be found. no comments

Key Stats: If there was ever a pitcher to have his diet scrutinized it should have been David Wells or C.C. Sabathia or Bob Wickman. Jon Lester doesn’t deserve it looking at his frame, but this off-season it’s all Red Sox Nation has been talking about. In terms of fantasy baseball, so what? Lester has averaged 16 wins a 3.33 ERA 1.24 WHIP and 196 strikeouts over the last four years. He’s only going to be 28 this year.

Skeptics Say: Lester has been historically very bad in the month of April. His WHIP is higher in that month than any other. Starting slow again this season could lead to greater pressure given all the questions about his character at the end of last season. It will be important for Lester to come out of the gates hot to start this year. no comments

Key Stats: For the second straight season, Jered Weaver was a top 20 overall player. Last year Weaver got there a different way than he had the season before. His strikeout total fell by 35 strikeouts, but his ERA went down by 0.60.

Skeptics Say: The ERA going down as far as it did was based heavily on luck. Weaver’s FIP was 3.20. His teammate Dan Haren (who has the same fielders behind him) had an ERA that was higher than his FIP. When you also add in Weaver’s nearly 2 K/9 drop off last season, it would appear that getting back to the top twenty overall rankings is unlikely. no comments

Key Stats: This is a true Fantasy Baseball 365 exclusive as you won’t see Rickie Weeks ranked in the top 40 anywhere else. Why? If I had that answer, I wouldn’t have ranked him in the top 40 now would I? Weeks was the 38^th overall player in 2010 and actually improved in two key categories last year: slugging percentage and strikeout rate.

Skeptics Say: Injuries have destroyed Weeks’ career who could be in the same class with Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia if he had more than one season with 130 games. Last year he missed 40 games with an ankle problem, but he’s had all sorts of injuries. He’s also been placed on the DL for problems with his right wrist (twice), left wrist, and knee. There are those that believe that 2010 was an aberration. no comments

Key Stats: In 2011, Brett Lawire lit up the PCL to a tune of .315/.415/661 in 69 games. He blasted 18 HR's, stole 13 bases and provided a .308 ISO. Of his 103 hits, 48 went for extra bases. "Hitter friendly PCL goodness" one may say... even so, his potential call up, his hand getting broken, and then his raking after healing was national news in the fantasy baseball world. His August call up was met with much rejoicing. In 43 big league games last year, in the not so hitter friendly AL East, he exceeded expectations, going .293/.373/.580 with 9 HR's and 25 RBI. He stole 7 bases and was caught only once. In a Q&A with MLB Daily Dish, Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter said:

Key Stats: Nelson Cruz has been ranked in the top 90 for three straight years at Yahoo, but has not gotten higher than 73^rd on the player rater. His power is up there with the best sluggers in the game as we saw last October when he belted 8 home runs in only 62 post-season at-bats. This year he will likely raise his average as his BABIP last season was just .288. Bill James projects that he will have a .312 BABIP this season.

Skeptics Say: Cruz has missed an average of 42 games per season the last three years. He’s been placed on the DL six times and the injuries are always related to the same problems – his hamstring and quadriceps muscles. This is a clear case of a player that won’t bounce back 100% from an injury that has haunted him in the past. Understand that drafting Cruz means you will want to watch out for other injury risks out of fear for clogging up the DL spots (if your league uses a max number of DL spots). Also, keep an eye on Cruz as a base stealer. Last year he only attempted 14 steals which was 7 less than the year before. This could be a case where the Rangers are telling him not to run or he doesn’t feel healthy enough to run. no comments