Key Stats: Dustin Pedroia finished last year as the 16^th ranked overall player. It was the same ranking he had in 2008 when he was named the American League MVP. Pedroia did everything statistically. He was tied for 4^th in home runs among second basemen and finished in the top 3 at the position at the other four standard categories.

Skeptics Say: There’s no telling what Bobby Valentine’s philosophy will be regarding Pedroia’s stolen base potential. He doesn’t have blazing speed, but is a smart enough player to get good jumps and steal 20. Also in terms of power, he had a career low in fly ball percentage, so he was lucky to end up with as many home runs as he had. no comments

Holds, basically saves with a different name and inning attached to them. Sometimes the pitcher credited with the Hold is actually the one who "saved" the game, but that's a discussion for another time and place. Right now, it's time to try and guess at who will be the best fantasy pitchers to target in leagues with Holds as a category. Here's my attempt at predicting the wild world of bullpen roles and reliever consistency.

Based on my analysis and current ADP data, these are the players that I feel are overvalued or too risky to take on draft day.

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Key Stats: Mark Teixeira has averaged 697 plate appearances the last four seasons. With good health comes a better chance for numbers to accumulate. Sure enough Teixeira has driven in at least 108 runs in each of the last four seasons and at least 105 in the last eight seasons. No other player in the game can make that claim. Teixeira has also had at least 30 long balls every season since 2004.

Skeptics Say: Last year Teixeira followed up a .256 average in 2010 with a .248 campaign. He was supposed to bounce back to the kind of player that hit .297 in five seasons before that.  The problem lies in Teixeira’s batting average on balls in play and more specifically the fly balls that he’s hit. His BABIP in New York was just .218 last year. He is probably too drawn to the short porch in right field. While the 39 home runs were great last year, fantasy players might want to trade in five of them for 40 to 50 points in batting average.

Peer Comparison: Teixeira will be 32 this season, so perhaps the batting average is a trend of the times to come as he slowly should see his numbers come down. Teixeira isn’t the only first baseman that is going to be 32 and has driven in at least 100 while bopping 30 home runs in each of the last six seasons. No I’m not talking about Albert Pujols. He didn’t drive in 100 last season. Ryan Howard has done this for the past six seasons. Howard is currently coming off the board 113 selections after Teixeira on drafts at Mock Draft Central. no comments

Key Stats: Despite playing in only 133 and 121 games each of the last two years, Hamilton has been able to put up numbers that rival the best players in the game. He has a 12.7 WAR over that two year span and a .329 AVG, those numbers are 5th and 2nd best in baseball. Last year in only 121 games he was tied for 9th in OF homers and 8th in RBI. He is without question one of the best producers in baseball. Let's not forget that 2012 will be a contract year for Josh, and with his history of problems (injury and substance abuse) he could feel like he has a lot to prove for a big payday.

Key Stats: Felix Hernandez saw his ERA rise from 2.27 in 2010 when he won the Cy Young Award to 3.47 last season. It is eye-popping, but probably something not worth worrying about. His xFIP went up by one one-hundredth of a point, his strikeout to walk rate was identical, and his K/9 actually rose last season.  Beyond the numbers, if you saw the guy pitch at all in 2010, the eye test says that he is still nasty. He is going to turn 26 in a month. I wouldn’t worry over an uptick in the ERA.

Skeptics Say: We have to be sort of picky with someone as good as King Felix, but his quality start percentage was tied for 25^th last season among qualifying starters. He also had an ERA of 3.91 in the second half. These are obvious signs of inconsistency something he did not have in 2011 when he led the league in quality start percentage. Just to be fair though, C.C. Sabathia was also 25^th in QS% last year, and if there was one word to describe him it would be consistent.
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As a reminder, my complete ranks can be found here...

Shortstop has elite talent, then some good players, then some also rans. If you can't get a top guy in the first 2 rounds, and don't want to spend a 4th or 5th round pick on someone who isn't going to produce at the same level as the other players going around them, prep to wait to get someone in the 10th round or later.

On to the notes!

Key Stats: After hitting just 9 home runs in 2010, Ian Kinsler had some questions to answer in 2011. After hitting a career high 32 home runs in 2011, Kinser answered those questions. Kinsler had a career low HR:FB% in 2010 and a career low FB%. Last year those numbers essentially returned to his career average in both stats.
The reason that Kinsler hit a career high on an “average” season in terms of fly balls and home runs per fly ball is a result of playing in a career high 155 games and avoiding the DL for the first time in his career.

Skeptics Say: A player coming off a 30/30 season that isn’t an outfielder is usually an automatic first round choice. Kinsler though has his issues. First of all, there are those people that choose to think of last season’s healthy season as the exception rather than the rule. Secondly, Kinsler hurt teams with a .255 batting average last season. That average came despite a career low strikeout rate. Kinsler’s BABIP was only .243, but before we assume that his luck will turn around consider that this is the second time in three years Kinsler’s BABIP has fallen under .250. The other season that Kinsler had this happen to him was 2009. In that season, he also was a 30/30 player and had an average of .253. The poor average seems like a trend to me. no comments