A Good Time to Sell High on Alfonso Soriano

Written by Charlie Saponara on May 05, 2010 01:16.

Alfonso Soriano just hit his seventh home run of the season. It is somewhat surprising to see Soriano do so well out of the gates in 2010 considering that very few people expected much from him this season. We're we completely wrong on Soriano? Maybe, but such a hot start really isn't that surprising. It is, however, unsustainable.

Through 82 at-bats this season: .338 AVG, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB

Through 82 at-bats last season: .305 AVG, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 3 SB

The rest of the 2009 season: .234 AVG, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB (393 AB)

Soriano fell victim to injuries as well as some big-time slumps. His season ended only three days into September. Will things be different this season?

What's Wrong With Javier Vazquez?

Written by Charlie Saponara on May 04, 2010 15:46.

From 2003 through 2009 Javier Vazquez had thrown at least 200 innings in every season except for one and that was 198 innings in 2004, with the Yankees.

Vazquez had long been known in the Sabermetric world as a pitcher who always had great peripheral stats like K/9 and BB/9, whiff rate, etc, but never seemed to have the ERA, WHIP or W-L numbers to back it up. In 2009 Vazquez seemingly put it all together as he posted an incredible 9.77 K/9, 1.81 BB/9 and 5.41 K/BB rate, all of which led to a sparkling 2.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. This season, however, has been nothing short of a disaster. Is it the return to the American League? Is it pitching in home run haven Yankee Stadium? Is it the pressure of New York? Or is it something else?

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Early Season AB/HR Rates

Written by Charlie Saponara on May 04, 2010 02:18.

Last season Albert Pujols and Carlos Pena led all of baseball with a AB/HR rate of 12.1. 13 players last season had an AB/HR rate under 15. In 2008 there were only 11 batters with an AB/HR rate under 15. Currently there are 30 players that have AB/HR rates under 15. Many of these, as you will see, are unsustainable such as Paul Konerko and his crazy 6.8 AB/HR. Then there are players like Troy Tulowitzki that are almost guaranteed to hit home runs with more frequency.

Included in this chart is each player's AB/HR rate as well as his translated home run total per 500 at-bats, 550 at-bats and 600 at-bats. Some of the names at the top are good sell high candidates if you can get full price as their home run rates are sure to drop soon. You'll also notice some names toward the bottom to buy low on that have track records of hitting for power.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Am2IhGwaG-mUdFUtTGRsZHkzdExwSVdIcnlEQWlFZFE&hl=en

Hot Prospect Corner: Wilson Ramos and Shelby Miller

Written by Charlie Saponara on May 03, 2010 16:21.

I recently did some scouting for projectprospect.com, one of, if not thee best independent baseball prospects site around. Needless to say, I am a big fan and am very excited to have the opportunity to contribute to what they do. My first article is on Cardinals top prospect Shelby Miller (with video!). Check it out.

In case you haven't seen my little side project, head on over to rotoprospects.com. It's a take on baseball prospects from a roto point of view. Today you'll find some info on Wilson Ramos, who went 4 for 5 in his first big league game filling in for the injured Joe Mauer.

Two-Start Pitchers for Week Five

Written by Charlie Saponara on May 01, 2010 19:19.

Saturday is two-start pitcher day. Let's look at who gets the ball twice in week five, who you should take a chance on and who you should avoid.

The No-Doubters

CC Sabathia (BAL, @BOS)

Adam Wainwright (@PHI, @PIT)

Ubaldo Jimenez (@SD, @LAD)

Ryan Dempster (@PIT, @CIN)

Roy Oswalt (ARI, @SD)

James Shields (@SEA, @OAK)

Jon Lester (LAA, NYY)

Ricky Romero (@CLE, @CWS)

One Man's Trash...Week Four

Written by Charlie Saponara on May 01, 2010 01:02.

In this week's edition of One Man's Trash, we look at ESPN's most dropped list to find some very interesting names that owners have disposed to the waiver wire. Carlos Zambrano leads the list in week four. Can he help your fantasy team? Who else is bound to rebound? Let's take a look...

Trade Debate: Helton for Floyd

Written by Charlie Saponara on Apr 29, 2010 17:50.

This is the perfect time of year to try and buy low on certain players. Stat lines can be highly skewed due to small sample size and early season struggles get magnified due to their affect on fantasy league standings. However, if you believe in your projections and you do the research, there are great bargains to be found.

A trade was just processed in the FB365 League in which my team gave up Todd Helton to acquire Gavin Floyd. Good trade? Bad trade? Even trade? You can be the judge of that, but allow me to explain why I made this deal.

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Ranting With a Friend About Slumping Stars

Written by Charlie Saponara on Apr 28, 2010 20:28.

I got a call from a buddy of mine last night. We are in two leagues together, one of which is the FB365 League. It was one of those, "I just need someone to talk to" type of calls, but it wasn't about a personal problem or relationship problem, it was about his slumping fantasy teams and the star players that continue to let him down.