This article was submitted by Dave from Goose Joak.
Seasoned fantasy baseball players will tell you that pitchers are harder to forecast than hitters. There are many reasons, but chief among them:
1. Pitchers progress in a less linear fashion than hitters. So predicting a breakout season is tougher.
2. Pitchers are subject to more severe injury problems than hitters.
A Common Question
Therefore it is imperative in most leagues that you scour the waiver wire for talent. In doing so, I find myself asking some of the same questions over and over. For instance:
Pitcher x (somebody like Tom Gorzelanny, perhaps) has a career ERA of 4.50. Suddenly they’ve put up 3 quality starts in a row and are pitching better than they ever have in their career. Is it time to buy?
It feels like we face this question all the time. Just this year we have cases like Dallas Braden, Carl Pavano, Ian Kennedy, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Tom Gorzelanny, Randy Wells, Kris Medlen, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister…the list goes on and on. One way we tend to evaluate this choice, particularly on sites like FB365, is by looking at xFIP.no comments