Is it wise to bet on pitchers with sudden, rapid improvement?

Written by Mark Schruender on Jul 25, 2010 23:42.

This article was submitted by Dave from Goose Joak.

Seasoned fantasy baseball players will tell you that pitchers are harder to forecast than hitters. There are many reasons, but chief among them:

1. Pitchers progress in a less linear fashion than hitters. So predicting a breakout season is tougher.

2. Pitchers are subject to more severe injury problems than hitters.

A Common Question

Therefore it is imperative in most leagues that you scour the waiver wire for talent. In doing so, I find myself asking some of the same questions over and over. For instance:

Pitcher x (somebody like Tom Gorzelanny, perhaps) has a career ERA of 4.50. Suddenly they’ve put up 3 quality starts in a row and are pitching better than they ever have in their career. Is it time to buy?

It feels like we face this question all the time. Just this year we have cases like Dallas Braden, Carl Pavano, Ian Kennedy, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Tom Gorzelanny, Randy Wells, Kris Medlen, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister…the list goes on and on. One way we tend to evaluate this choice, particularly on sites like FB365, is by looking at xFIP.

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Morneau Leads the Best DL Players

Written by Mark Schruender on Jul 23, 2010 20:20.

If your DL is overloaded and are searching for the right guy to cut, perhaps this list will help.

1. Justin Morneau – He is getting closer to returning to the Twins. Concussions are nothing new for Morneau which is obviously concerning, but he is making progress. Morneau has always been a better first half player, so the time on the DL is doubly bad news for his owners. Still, he was an MVP candidate prior to going on the DL and a bad half for him is a good half for many.

2. Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia will be arriving soon for the Red Sox and before his injury was starting to crush the ball. Relative to the other players on the list, his injury shouldn’t linger. He will only get better each day.

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Blue Jays’ Rotation Through Keeper Lenses

Written by Charlie Saponara on Jul 22, 2010 06:00.

Our first guest writer this week is Zach Sanders, who writes for RotoGraphs (a division of FanGraphs.com).

During a chat at FanGraphs last Friday, a reader posed an interesting question. The reader asked me to rank the Blue Jays starting staff based on their value as keepers. It got me thinking, so, without further ado...

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Buy or Sell: Hottest Pitchers in the Last 30 days

Written by Charlie Saponara on Jul 21, 2010 06:00.

Guest Writer's Week starts tomorrow as I will be away and without internet use (unless I want to shell out some big $$$). I think you'll very much enjoy the trio of guest writers in the next few days. They are all extremely talented and smart in the ways of fantasy baseball (and real baseball for that matter).

But before we get to that, one quick buy or sell for the road. Using Yahoo!'s rankings, let's take a look at the top pitchers over the last 30 days.

...Is Another Man's Treasure, Week 16

Written by Charlie Saponara on Jul 20, 2010 19:37.

In the "One Man's Trash" series, I've been looking at ESPN's most dropped list all season long and it's about time to dig into the most added list for some contrast. Are these hot adds sustainable sources of production or hot streaks destined to fizzle out? Let's take a look...

One Man's Trash...Week 16

Written by Charlie Saponara on Jul 20, 2010 17:32.

One Man's Trash is back from a little siesta and ready to dive back into ESPN's most dropped list to find some buy low gems for your fantasy team.

RAW Pitcher Ratings: Tweaks, Reasons, Comparisons and Pitchers to Buy Low/Sell High

Written by Charlie Saponara on Jul 19, 2010 16:17.

Not to continue hitting you over the head with this RAW Pitcher Rating stuff, but I truly believe it could play a big role in how we evaluate pitchers based on their "raw" stuff. I've received some feedback and questions (thank you!) and have done a bit of tweaking to the formula. It doesn't change things too dramatically, but I think the changes improve the effectiveness of the ratings overall.

To explain in furthur detail how I see this working and explain why some players are ranked surprisingly high or low, let's take a look at some interesting comparisons.

Mailbag: Questions about RAW Pitcher Ratings

Written by Charlie Saponara on Jul 17, 2010 20:57.

I was very excited to release the first version of RAW Pitcher Ratings this past week, but there have been a few questions about how they work. One email conversation in particular helps explain some of these questions.

I don't claim to be a statistics whiz (my degree is in English), but I think I have a pretty solid grasp on how they relate to baseball. Having played the game helps as I can relate why stats are good or bad to my own personal experience.

This means that I am more than open to any questions, concerns, comments or suggestions of your own. Feel free to email me anytime ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ).