It's Time to Cash in on Mark Trumbo
Mark Trumbo is swinging an amazing bat right now. Not only are his numbers impressive, but he looks going doing it too, hitting moon shots into the deep corners of the outfield seats (and outfield rocks), which is why now is the time to sell as high as you can.
I was not extremely high on Trumbo coming into the season, as he seemed to me like a hitter with poor plate discipline and a tendency to swing and miss quite a bit. At this point, it seems like some of those faults can be chalked up to the learning curve that a lot of young players go through once they reach the big league level. However, while Trumbo has made some nice adjustments at the start of his sophomore season, there are a few peripheral numbers that suggest a regression is coming and could come quick.
Though Trumbo has increased his walk rate early on, he is still chasing a well above average amount of pitches outside the strike-zone (about 36.5 percent). On top of the lack of plate discipline, Trumbo is also whiffing at a very high rate (27 percent), which puts him in the same company as Paul Goldschmidt and Kelly Johnson, neither of whom have had the insane success on balls in play as Trumbo has. That area, BABIP, is the final piece to projecting a rapid regression from Trumbo. His BABIP stands at an astounding .393 and that is without the aide of an extremely high line drive rate (his current line drive rate is about league average).
By the end of the season, I expect Trumbo's numbers to look very respectable (.265-.270 with 25-30 home runs), but that also means that the best of his season has likely already taken place.
Now is the time to put Trumbo on the block and see who is willing to pay top dollar.
AlecStevens
CharlieSaponara
CharlieSaponara
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I was not extremely high on Trumbo coming into the season, as he seemed to me like a hitter with poor plate discipline and a tendency to swing and miss quite a bit. At this point, it seems like some of those faults can be chalked up to the learning curve that a lot of young players go through once they reach the big league level. However, while Trumbo has made some nice adjustments at the start of his sophomore season, there are a few peripheral numbers that suggest a regression is coming and could come quick.
Though Trumbo has increased his walk rate early on, he is still chasing a well above average amount of pitches outside the strike-zone (about 36.5 percent). On top of the lack of plate discipline, Trumbo is also whiffing at a very high rate (27 percent), which puts him in the same company as Paul Goldschmidt and Kelly Johnson, neither of whom have had the insane success on balls in play as Trumbo has. That area, BABIP, is the final piece to projecting a rapid regression from Trumbo. His BABIP stands at an astounding .393 and that is without the aide of an extremely high line drive rate (his current line drive rate is about league average).
By the end of the season, I expect Trumbo's numbers to look very respectable (.265-.270 with 25-30 home runs), but that also means that the best of his season has likely already taken place.
Now is the time to put Trumbo on the block and see who is willing to pay top dollar.
6 comments
i say hell no! stick in at 3rd every chance u can, train his ass off at in the offseason, He's an alex rodriguez caliber player, no way get rid of him.
@AlecStevens Fantasy baseball is about predicting what a player WILL do, not what he HAS done. Clearly, he's hitting like an MVP right now, but based on my analysis, that is unlikely to last. Absolutely enjoy the ride, but if the right offer comes along, I'd jump on it.
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@CollegeWolf I think he's going to be a guy that has big hot streaks and big cold streaks due to below average plate discipline, so ride em while he's hot, but sell high if you have a good offer.
