Name that Pitcher: Ted Lilly vs ???
2010 was a good year for Ted Lilly. He made a strong comeback from offseason Labrum surgery and ended up throwing 193.2 innings while posting a 3.62 ERA and a 3.77 K/BB rate. There was a pitcher who posted very similar numbers compared to Lilly's in 2010, though this pitcher's ERA shot north of 5.00. Can you name that pitcher?
Ted Lilly:
3.62 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 7.71 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, 1.49 HR/9, 0.56 GB/FB, .259 BABIP
3.62 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 7.71 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, 1.49 HR/9, 0.56 GB/FB, .259 BABIP
????????:
5.18 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 8.28 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, 1.08 GB/FB, .354 BABIP
5.18 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 8.28 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, 1.08 GB/FB, .354 BABIP
The unknown pitcher is James Shields.
2010 was not kind to James Shields. ERA wise, it was the worst season of his major league career. However, peripherally speaking (and don't we always speak in peripherals!) Shields actually showed up quite strong. His 8.28 K/9 in 2010 was a career high and his 2.26 BB/9 was right in line with the good control he has shown throughout his career. However, the difference between control and command is where he got hurt.
Shields saw a big spike in HR/9 in 2010, allowing 34 home runs in 203.1 innings, a career worst.
This past season, Shields increased the use of his two-seam fastball, which had been a useful pitch in the past, but he did not locate it as well. Below are images from TexasLeaguers.com that show the difference in pitch location from 2009 (top) to 2010 (bottom) of his two-seam fastball.
As you can see, in 2009, Shields used his two-seamer to pound righties inside and work away from lefties. In 2010, his location moved more towards the center of the plate. The same thing happened with his curveball, which had been a much more effective pitch for him in the past. His curveball location moved from the left side toward the middle of the plate.
This loss of command led to a spike in HR/9 and HR/FB. Major league hitters thrive on hitting mistakes hard and they did just that to James Shields.
What's interesting here is how Shield's numbers compare to those of Ted Lilly, who basically posted an identical HR/9. Lilly lives and dies on the results of his fly balls allowed. He has a career fly ball rate of 46 percent, but has been over 50 percent in the last two seasons. The move from Wrigley Field to Dodger stadium clearly helped his home run rate, but his BABIP against was abnormally low for the entire season, even for Lilly's standards (career .283 BABIP). BABIP on fly balls is, on average, lower for hitters than on ground balls, so a low BABIP for Lilly can be expected, but his .259 BABIP was his lowest since 2002, when he only threw 100 innings and made only 16 starts. On the other hand, James Shields was hurt by an abnormally high .354 BABIP considering his line drive rate of about 20 percent is more or less the league average. Home runs do not count toward BABIP, as they are not technically in play.
The bottom line is that James Shields had a bad year, no matter how you slice it. Was his BABIP a bit high? Yes, but he hurt himself by failing to locate his two-seamer and curveball as well as he had in the past. Shields's ERA probably should have been in the low fours -- his FIP was 4.24 --, but because of the home runs allowed, he wasn't going to be as fantasy baseball relevant as he had been in the past anyway.
Look for Shields to rebound a bit in 2011. He has shown much better command in the past and a simple mechanical adjustment could be the fixer. However, don't count on him for much more than a 3.75-3.85 ERA and 11-13 wins. Lilly might be even more of a risky pick on draft day. His ballpark will help, but his outfield defense with Andre Ethier (-36.1 3yr UZR) and Matt Kemp (-22 3yr UZR) might not do him many favors. He's also 35 years old with declining velocity. If the command slips at all, he could get hurt fast.
Though their numbers showed many similarities in 2010 and Lilly had the far better results, I'll take Shields over Lilly on draft day 2011.
