I've used three components here. First is K/BB rate. The more strikeouts to walks the better and while I'd prefer to target pitchers with a K/9 of 7.35 or above, sometimes control artists can find success without the whiffs. The second number is good ole BABIP. Since the season is so young, there are quite a few BABIP numbers that are so greatly skewed it's ridiculous. While not every pitcher will end up with a BABIP against of around .300, most of the current BABIP numbers that are much higher or much lower than .300 should work their way toward the middle. The final number is left on base percentage. A league average LOB% should be around 71-72%. This is also a number that can get extremely skewed in small sample sizes. By looking at these three numbers together and comparing them to a pitchers ERA, we have a simple way of gauging luck or randomness.
Note: Buying or selling is all relative to what it means for your team. If you have Jered Weaver and have some depth in your pitching staff, why not try and sell him off for that top-shelf bat? However, if he's the glue that is keeping everything together, you're probably going to hold and know that even a regression will result in awesome numbers when all is said and done. All pitchers below have a K/BB rate over 3.
Brandon McCarthy - While McCarthy has an excellent K/BB rate, I'm concerned about his low strikeout rate and durability. He was tagged for 14 hits and seven earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Angels in his last outing. Still, his lower arm slot has added a lot of movement to his pitches and his command had been great until that last outing.
Matt Garza - The most lopsided pitcher so far this season might be Matt Garza. He has 41 strikeouts to only 9 walks and zero home runs allowed in 30.2 innings this season, but his ERA stands north of 4.00. Garza has allowed his fair share of line drives, but he has also kept the ball on the ground quite a bit. Look for his league leading .414 BABIP to regress in a big way as the season moves along and for his incredibly low 60% LOB% to improve greatly as well.
Sam LeCure - This buy low really only applies to deep mixed or NL-only leagues as LeCure will likely jump back and forth from the rotation and bullpen all season. Other than the four home runs he allowed to Arizona on the 19th, he's been a decent pitcher for NL-only GM's. He's worth keeping an eye on if given the right matchup.
Jason Vargas - While I'm not crazy about pitchers who have well below average strikeout rates, Vargas mixes above average command with the ability to generate weak contact. As long as he can avoid the long ball, he'll be an interesting name to consider in deeper leagues.
Cloby Lewis, Daniel Hudson and Bud Norris are available in my FA (12 team mixed league). I am pretty certain I am going to grab Norris and I can easily have room for the other two. What is you take of the first two guys based on the sabermatics calculation?
I just picked up Hanley Ramirez for Ubaldo Jiminez, B.J. Upton and Mike Napoli. I am pretty happy with this trade. Just looking for a little reassurance. Who is the winner in your opinion?
As we've discussed, I'm concerned about Colby Lewis. I was thinking of offering this deal, let me know what you think:
Colby Lewis (Yahoo! O-Rank 181, 55% owned), Joakim Soria (O-Rank 81, 97%)
Matt Garza (O-Rank 182, 81% owned), Huston Street (O-Rank 148, 95%)
I like Garza as a buy-low candidate, I think I might be able to swing this. Soria has 5 saves at the moment, while Street has 9 for the surging Rockies. While Street's slipups will inevitably lead to more damage at Coors, I think he might still end up with more saves, barring injury. So, any opinions? Does this have a chance of being accepted?
I like Jeremy Guthrie. I'm sure his HR/FB% will climb 2%-4%, but everything else is on par with his normal self. The BB/9 has improved, nothing false about the .275 BABIP. Granted he's more of a h2h pitcher rather than roto (capped IP). Probably a tough sell high.
Hudson then Lewis
@leviathans.smile I think you'll end up winning that trade. Once Hanley gets going I think he's going to explode and you'll be getting the best of his season.
@asaw780 I could see this trade working. At this point I'd much rather have Garza than Lewis. At least Garza is showing some signs of diminance. Lewis is just plain lost right now. While I think the Soria is the better closer when all is said and done, the difference between the two is worth the upgrade to Garza IMO.
@andrewakamds I like Guthrie too, but only to an extent. While his BB/9 looks improved thus far, we're only 32 innings into his season. He's really the same pitcher he has always been, so I think his ERA finishes 1-1.5 runs per nine higher that it is right now.
With a pitcher like Guthrie (low K, good command) I'll always try and sell a sub 3.00 ERA.