2010 Positional Ranks: First Base

Tier one

There is little debate here.  Pujols is the almost consensus number one overall pick.

Tier two

As I have started before, I think Miguel Cabrera has a 40 home runs season in him yet.  He also is one of the few sluggers that has consistently hit .310-.320.  It is close between Fielder and Teixeira, but Fielder has a better shot of hitting 40-45 homers.  Ryan Howard is the same ole story; big time power, fluctuations in AVG. 

Tier three

Like Howard, Reynolds has tremendous power, but could see fluctuations in his AVG.  The 20-plus stolen base potential is nice too.  Adrian Gonzalez doesn't seem to be getting the love that Joey Votto is getting, yet A-Gonz has hit 36 and 40 home runs the last two seasons respectively while driving in and scoring from 90 to 110 RBI and runs.  Votto has yet to do any of that.  While I do think Votto can hit 30-plus home runs in 2010, it is very unlikely that he repeats his .322 AVG, which was aided by an extreme .373 BABIP last season.  Kevin Youkilis should maintain numbers as he has the past two seasons.  Kendry Morales could see some regression, but it would not be not far off from what we should expect from Votto, yet he is going a couple rounds later in mock drafts.  Kung Fu Panda may top out at about 25 home runs, but it is his ability to hit .320-plus makes his a very desirable target on draft day.

Tier four

We know the story with Adam Dunn; big power, low AVG.  His .326 BABIP in 2009 was the highest of his career.  Justin Morneau has had issues with injuries on and off his whole professional career.  Target Field should repress home runs just a bit as well.  I'm not willing to use a high round pick to find out how he reacts to his new digs.  Billy Butler is everyone's favorite breakout candidate and he has the ability to do so.  Last year he learned to hit for power as the season went along and some of his 51 doubles should turn into a few more home runs in 2010.  Victor Martinez is a much more valuable play at catcher, but should hold his own at first base.  I am concerned about Lance Berkman, obviously.  His body and mind seem to be giving ground a bit.  He'll be 34 on opening day.  Derrek Lee had a nice bounce back season in 2009, but regression seems inevitable.  His HR/FB rate was 17.9%, which was Lee's highest since 2005 when he hit 46 home runs. 

Tier five

Carlos Pena may be a bit of a surprise here considering he hit 39 home runs despite missing time with broken fingers.  I don't think I have ever seen such an "all-or-nothing" approach at the plate...well, maybe Phil Plantier (fast forward to 3:40...or don't).  That approach should once again result in a very, very low AVG.  Speaking of "all-or-nothing" Chris Davis fits that bill.  I still think there is tremendous power potential here.  I mean, Mark Reynolds did it right?  While it is unlikely that Garrett Jones maintains his incredible power/speed pace from 2009, something around 25 home runs and 15 steals with a .275 AVG is realistic.  We know what we are getting from Todd Helton.  Healthy, he is a high AVG guy who will pop out 10-15 homers.  Jose Lopez should be able to maintain a 20-plus home runs pace and see some more RBI chances in a revamped Mariners lineup. 

Tier six

Jorge Cantu has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, but there is room here for another .280, 20-25 home runs season.  Paul Konerko isn't about to get much better, but should provide good value as a CI late in drafts.  Finally, after failing to live up to his top prospect label for years and years, Russell Branyan broke the 30 home run mark.  Too bad that may have been as good as it gets for Branyan.  He is not exactly known for his durability and he broke down during the stretch run of 2009.  Nick Swisher may very well put up similar numbers to Branyan with regards to AVG and home runs, but his ability to stay on the field gives him the edge in runs and RBI.  You can go ahead and wait until the second half of the season to pick up Adam LaRoche.

Tier seven

Somehow, there is still some James Loney love out there despite back-to-back lackluster seasons.  While Loney is young enough to improve his power numbers a little, it is still not enough to trust as a 1B or CI in 12 team leagues.  Michael Cuddyer seems like yet another guy who ended up with a nice 2009 season, but is destined to regress.  Nick Johnson makes the list by becoming the new full time DH for the New York Yankees.  He'll hit second and score a bunch of runs if healthy...if healthy.  The Giants seem to think Aubrey Huff can bring back his power numbers, I don't.  Jeff Clement is somewhat of a dark-horse here.  He may not even begin the season at the Major League level, but he has some serious power to go along with a low AVG. 

Master list