Inside the Projections: Andrew McCuthchen
Andrew McCutchen 2011 Projection:
|
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
|
585 |
0.288 |
0.370 |
0.466 |
0.836 |
18 |
96 |
58 |
36 |
In some ways, 2010 may have been a disappointing year for McCutchen owners. He wasn't bad by any stretch, but he didn't have a true breakout season either. However, McCutchen did prove two important things this past season: Consistency and upside.
|
Year |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
AB/HR |
|
2009 |
433 |
0.286 |
0.365 |
0.471 |
12 |
36.1 |
|
2010 |
570 |
0.286 |
0.365 |
0.449 |
16 |
35.6 |
|
Year |
BB% |
K% |
SB |
CS |
SBS% |
|
2009 |
11.0% |
19.2% |
22 |
5 |
81.5% |
|
2010 |
10.7% |
15.6% |
33 |
10 |
76.7% |
McCutchen finished with the same exact same AVG and OBP as he did his rookie season. He even hit home runs at roughly the same pace. One negative was his regression in stolen base success rate. However, given his age (23) and natural talent -- not to mention work ethic -- he has plenty of room to improve that success rate in 2011, which should lead to a better stolen base total.
Another positive factor going for McCutchen is the young and improving Pirates lineup behind him. McCutchen came close to scoring 100 runs in a lineup that did not feature Jose Tabata, Neil Walker or Pedro Alvarez for the entire season. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he broke the 100 or even 110 runs scored mark in 2011.
As you can see from the projection, I am expecting an improvement from McCutchen, but not a huge breakout. That being said, there is certainly the potential that he out-performs these projections.
What Andrew McCutchen has done in his first two major league seasons at ages 22 and 23 has shown us just how solid of a young ballplayer he is. Mixing patience at the plate with the potential to hit for both power and AVG, some .290/20/40 seasons are well within reach. Don't be afraid to reach for that potential in 2011.
