Car-Go's Home/Road Splits
A lot has been made about Carlos Gonzalez's home/road splits. Some seem to see the disparity between his home/road numbers as a sign that he will be a fantasy bust in 2011. While I would agree that a regression is likely for Car-Go, I think it is less about his home/road splits and more about the unsustainable 384 BABIP.
As long as Car-Go continues to play 81 home games at Coors, he should continue to put up great numbers there. Some star players just love to hit at their home park. Car-Go's home/road splits are similar to another MVP candidate Josh Hamilton.
|
Car-Go |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
|
Home |
0.380 |
0.425 |
0.737 |
26 |
|
Road |
0.289 |
0.322 |
0.453 |
8 |
|
Josh Hamilton |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
|
Home |
0.390 |
0.438 |
0.750 |
22 |
|
Road |
0.327 |
0.382 |
0.512 |
10 |
Hamilton put up similar home/road splits in his breakout 2008 season as well.
The main reason I expect a regression from Car-Go in 2011 is the fact that he isn't a very patient hitter and his .384 BABIP in 2010 looks completely unsustainable. Car-Go hit .369 over the season's final three months with BABIP's of .441, .353 and 440 in July, August and September/October. A hot streak is one thing, but to sustain one over three months is extremely hard to do. It would be risky to expect such a streak repeating itself in 2011. This is especially true with a hitter like Car-Go, who is ultra aggressive at the plate and swings at a ton of bad pitches.
At home in 2010, Car-Go was a monster. 26 of his 34 home runs came in Coors where he had a very high 27.7 percent HR/FB rate, which is almost a 10 percent increase from 2009. He also hit .380 at home with a .391 BABIP, which is a huge increase from his .305 AVG/.333 BABIP in 2009.
For the reasons stated above, I don't think we'll see MVP type numbers from Car-Go in 2011. However, that doesn't mean that he won't continue to be a fantasy stud.
Car-Go has always had tremendous talent and his power/speed combo is more than legit. In 2009 he hit 23 homers and stole 22 bases between triple-A and the major leagues. While I think the AVG/OBP/SLG stats will regress a little in 2011, they should still be good enough to not hurt fantasy owners. Then again, he is likely going to be viewed as a first round pick in 2011. Those who pay top dollar for Car-Go in 2011 may end up a bit disappointed. It wouldn't surprise me at all if his numbers were close to those of Shin-Soo Choo at the end of next season.
