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This is perhaps the most time consuming and yet most volatile position to project and rank. These rankings are based mostly on five main factors. Strikeouts, walks, durability and upside...in that order. Wins mean something, but are highly unpredictable except for maybe the top few pitchers. When ranking starters, or pitchers in general, I ask myself one main question: Who is the best at the things they can control? Secondly, I break that question down into parts: Who generates the most strikeouts and swings and misses? Who has the best command? Who gets a large amount of ground balls? Who keeps the ball in the ballpark?
With this in mind, here are the top 70 starting pitchers broken down into tiers.
Tier one
There is no question with ranking Lincecum all alone. We are looking at something historical when we watch this guy pitch.
Tier two
| 2. Roy Halladay |
| 3. Zack Greinke |
| 4. Felix Hernandez |
| 5. Justin Verlander |
| 6. CC Sabathia |
The move to the National League should help Halladay's strikeouts and ERA. both Greinke and King Felix should keep up their dominance while Verlander should continue to rack up the strikeouts.
Tier three
|
7. Dan Haren
8.Jon Lester
|
| 9. Johan Santana |
| 10. Adam Wainwright |
| 11. Yovani Gallardo |
Jon Lester took a huge step forward in 2009 despite a rough start and he should continue to be the second half pitcher we saw last season. Johan Santana's elbow should be fully recovered, but the elite level strikeouts may never return. Yovani Gallardo went through a bit of a learning curve in 2009. Expect a correction in command to result in a big improvement in ERA and WHIP.
Tier four 
| 12. Ricky Nolasco |
| 13. Ubaldo Jimenez |
| 14. Cliff Lee |
| 15. Chris Carpenter |
| 16. Josh Beckett |
| 17. Clayton Kershaw |
| 18. Javier Vazquez |
Are you shocked to see Hot Nolasco Sauce ranked so high? Then you didn't follow this site last season. His command was not what it was in 2008, but his K/BB rate was among the best in the bigs. Look for his BABIP to come back down to earth and his numbers to resemble those soft fantasy ace. Despite a huge 2009 for Javier Vazquez, his numbers won't translate as well in the American League, especially in the launching pad that is Yankee Stadium.
Tier five
| 19. Chad Billingsley |
| 20. Josh Johnson |
| 21. Tommy Hanson |
| 22. Jake Peavy |
| 23. Cole Hamels |
| 24. Wandy Rodriguez |
| 25. Brett Anderson |
| 26. Max Scherzer |
Fantasy owners would have been happy to grab Chad Billingsley as their ace in 2009 drafts. Now he comes at a discounted price with all indicators pointing to a bounce back. The second half Tommy Hanson is the one we will see in 2010 and beyond and that would make him a fantasy ace on any of my teams. Much like Billingsley, Cole Hamels is set to bounce back after his 2009 World Series hangover. Look for both Brett Anderson to take a big step forward and Max Scherzer to keep racking up the strikeouts.
Tier six
| 27. Matt Cain |
| 28. Matt Garza |
| 29. John Lackey |
| 30. James Shields |
| 31. Ryan Dempster |
| 32. Jered Weaver |
| 33. Jorge de la Rosa |
| 34. A.J. Burnett |
| 35. Scott Baker |
Matt Cain is in line for a regression, but he would still provide value if he drops far enough on draft day. Matt Garza is right on the verge of a breakout season while John Lackey is on the wrong side of 30 and profiles as more of a fantasy 3-4 than the ace that he used to be. Joge de la Rosa had a great second half, but don't overdraft him due to command issues.
Tier seven
| 36. Rich Harden |
| 37. Ted Lilly |
| 38. John Danks |
| 39. Brandon Webb |
| 40. Roy Oswalt |
| 41. Carlos Zambrano |
| 42. Jonathan Sanchez |
| 43. Neftali Feliz |
| 44. Gavin Floyd |
| 45. Ben Sheets |
| 46. Jair Jurrjens |
This tier represents pitchers with some upside, but injury question marks (Harden, Webb, Sheets) as well as some veterans that seem to be in a slight decline (Oswalt, Zambrano). There are also some upside strikeout pitchers in Jonathan Sanchez and Neftali Feliz. Sanchez has control issues while Feliz doesn't exactly have an impact role as of yet. Jair Jurrjens may seem way too low on this list, but his K/BB rate is league average while his ground ball rate, whiff rate and o-swing rate (swings on pitches outside the strike-zone) all regressed in 2009. I'm not touching him in 2010.
Tier eight
| 47. Clay Buchholz |
| 48. Daisuke Matsuzaka |
| 49. Scott Kazmir |
| 50. Edwin Jackson |
| 51. Joba Chamberlain |
| 52. Mark Buehrle |
| 53. Ervin Santana |
| 54. Chris Young |
| 55. Francisco Liriano |
| 56. Aaron Harang |
| 57. Price David |
| 58. Kevin Slowey |
| 59. Marc Rzepczynski |
| 60. Randy Wolf |
| 61. Brian Matusz |
| 62. Mat Latos |
The top of this tier is filled with pitchers that have the potential to be impact arms, but need to either bounce back (Dice-K, Kazmir) or prove themselvesves at the Major League level (Buchholz, Joba). Edwin Jackson had a great first half, but a 5-plus ERA in the second half to go along with a mediocre K/BB rate overall. The middle of this tier represents bounce back candidates in Ervin Santana, Chris Young, Francisco Liriano and Aaron Harang. Liriano peaks my interest the most as reports are that he is looking like his old self in winter ball. Three names toward the end of this tier (Marc Rzepczynski, Brian Matusz, Mat Latos) represent big upside plays at the end of drafts.
Tier nine
| 63. Hiroki Kuroda |
| 64. Jason Hammel |
| 65. Tim Hudson |
| 66. Joe Blanton |
| 67. Johnny Cueto |
| 68. Justin Duchscherer |
| 69. Derek Holland |
| 70. Shaun Marcum |
| 71. Randy Wells* |
Hiroki Kuroda is consistent, but unspectacular. Derek Holland has big upside and a Shaun Marcum could surprise with solid across the board numbers if healthy, which it looks like he is heading into spring training.
*Randy Wells moves to 71 because I forgot to copy and paste Dan Haren in at 7. My Bad.
Not listed:
- Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman - Right now I don't have a reason to project them for enough innings to be draft worthy. Maybe Strasburg if you have bench space. This will be something to watch this spring.
- Colby Lewis is an interesting story to watch as well. I want to see him throw before I make a solid ranking. He might just be worth a last round flier though.
- Felipe Paulino is an intriguing arm at the end of drafts. Big strikeout rates, but inconsistent command. Still, I'd take a flier.
Any others that you have questions about, just leave a comment.
The Master List
| 1. Tim Lincecum |
| 2. Roy Halladay |
| 3. Zack Greinke |
| 4. Felix Hernandez |
| 5. Justin Verlander |
| 6. CC Sabathia |
| 7. Jon Lester |
| 8. Johan Santana |
| 9. Adam Wainwright |
| 10. Yovani Gallardo |
| 11. Ricky Nolasco |
| 12. Ubaldo Jimenez |
| 13. Cliff Lee |
| 14. Chris Carpenter |
| 15. Josh Beckett |
| 16. Clayton Kershaw |
| 17. Javier Vazquez |
| 18. Chad Billingsley |
| 19. Josh Johnson |
| 20. Tommy Hanson |
| 21. Jake Peavy |
| 22. Cole Hamels |
| 23. Wandy Hamels |
| 24. Brett Anderson |
| 25. Max Scherzer |
| 26. Matt Cain |
| 27. Matt Garza |
| 28. John Lackey |
| 29. James Shields |
| 30. Ryan Dempster |
| 31. Jered Weaver |
| 32. Jorge de la Rosa |
| 33. A.J. Burnett |
| 34. Scott Baker |
| 35. Rich Harden |
| 36. Ted Lilly |
| 37. John Danks |
| 38. Brandon Webb |
| 39. Roy Oswalt |
| 40. Carlos Zambrano |
| 41. Jonathan Sanchez |
| 42. Neftali Feliz |
| 43. Gavin Floyd |
| 44. Ben Sheets |
| 45. Jair Jurrjens |
| 46. Clay Buchholz |
| 47. Daisuke Matsuzaka |
| 48. Scott Kazmir |
| 49. Edwin Jackson |
| 50. Joba Chamberlain |
| 51. Mark Buehrle |
| 52. Ervin Santana |
| 53. Chris Young |
| 54. Francisco Liriano |
| 55. Aaron Harang |
| 56. Price David |
| 57. Kevin Slowey |
| 58. Marc Rzepczynski |
| 59. Randy Wolf |
| 60. Brian Matusz |
| 61. Mat Latos |
| 62. Hiroki Kuroda |
| 63. Jason Hammel |
| 64. Tim Hudson |
| 65. Joe Blanton |
| 66. Johnny Cueto |
| 67. Justin Duchscherer |
| 68. Derek Holland |
| 69. Shaun Marcum |
| 70. Randy Wells |
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But seriously, do you have any thoughts on Scott Baker's upside? His peripherals seem much better than his ERA at least on the surface.