Top 15 Keeper Rankings: Shortstop

 

1. Hanley Ramirez l Age: 26

Believe it or not, I actually struggled with this ranking. Yes, Hanley has had a down year for his standards, but he is still ranked as the number one fantasy shortstop this season. Still, there are two main factors that worry me. The first is his declining speed. Hanley is getting bigger (more muscular) by the season. As he fills out, his speed slows and so to does his stolen base potential.

 

Season	SB	CS	SB%
2006	51	15	77.3%
2007	51	14	78.5%
2008	35	12	74.5%
2009	27	8	77.1%
2010	22	7	75.9%

 

It’s not that Hanley is getting caught more often; he’s just not making as many attempts.

 

The other worry I have is his ability to stick at shortstop long term. Joe Sheehan wrote an article for Sports Illustrated about the worst defensive players in the game. Hanley easily made the list. A move to third base wouldn’t be as bad (he still has David Wright type 30/30 potential), but the outfield has been floated around as a potential future position.

 

2. Troy Tulowitzki l Age: 25

An unfortunate wrist injury cut into Tulow’s season, which was shaping up to be another extremely productive one. Wrist injuries and power don’t like each other and it is evident that, while Tulow is still hitting for AVG, his ability to drive the ball out of the park has been affected (One home run since his return). Hopefully this doesn’t linger into 2011, but there is a chance it might. Either way, once Tulow is fully recovered he should continue to be a monster fantasy shortstop for years to come. I came this close to ranking him above Hanley for the long term.

 

3. Jose Reyes l Age: 27

There were a ton of question marks heading into this season about the health of Jose Reyes, but he was declared good to go just weeks into the season. He faced a pulled muscle in July that forced him to miss time, but there have no major issues to account for his under-performance. Simply put, Reyes has been way to anxious at the plate this season. He has chased at pitches outside the strike-zone over 31 percent of the time, which would stand to be a career high. When he swings at those bad pitches, often times he makes contact (77.6 percent O-CT%), but that has resulted in a lot of weakly hit balls in play.

 

These issues, though bad for 2010, are not in line with his career production and should be easily fixable as he heads into his late 20’s.

 

4. Elvis Andrus l Age: 21

Andrus has faded big time this post all-star break hitting .263 since then. He only has five steals since July fist and has been hitting the ball on the ground over 60 percent of the time since June 1^st. On a very positive note, Andrus has shown advancements in his plate discipline, which should only help him as the years go by. He’s only 21 right now, so the future for .280-.290 with 40-plus stolen bases is well within sight.

 

5. Jimmy Rollins l Age: 31

 

7. Alexei Ramirez l Age: 28

Hitters often “are who they are”, especially ones with little plate discipline. It’s not necessarily that Alexei has improved in that area (his walk rate has actually regressed), but he’s not swinging for the fences as much and in turn hitting more line drives while increasing his contact rate. However, one has to wonder whether this is really a good thing. His future AVG’s may still fluctuate due to his free swinging ways and he’s nothing more than a 12-15 stolen base threat. So if .290/15/15 is his ceiling with his new approach, wouldn’t you rather have the potential for .275/25/15?

 

8. Ian Desmond l Age: 24

 

11. Jason Bartlett l Age: 30

  

Yunel Escobar l Age: 27

Much like Bobby Cox, I’ve never been a big Yunel Escobar fan. It’s not that (other than this season) he’s done anything wrong production wise, but he’s just not anything more than a good fantasy shortstop. His power potential is limited due to very high ground ball rates, so his lineup spot holds the key to most of his value. The trade to Toronto should boost his value slightly for 2011, but there is nothing here to suggest that he will breakout in any way.

 

Cliff Pennington l Age: 26

I am very intrigued by the future of Cliff Pennington. I drafted him as a deep sleeper for 20-plus stolen bases in some deeper leagues this year and he looks like he'll deliver in that category. Still, it’s hard to roll with a guy who’s value is basically in that one category alone unless he steals 40-plus. Pennington has shown some improvement, albeit small, in his BB/K rate. He makes solid line drive contact and is able to hold his own defensively. Though my projections won’t likely show it, I just have this feeling that Pennington is going to put together a .295/25 stolen base season someday and be 12-team mixed league worthy because of it.

 

Everth Cabrera l Age: 23

With 648 career pate appearances in the big leagues, Everth Cabrera has put up a line of .237/.321/.335 with 33 stolen bases. He simply strikes out way too much for a player of his skill set. The stolen base threat will always be there, but until Cabrera makes huge strides in cutting down his strikeout rate, his AVG will continue to hinder fantasy owners.

 

J.J. Hardy l Age: 27

All things considered, Hardy has not put up horrible numbers when healthy in 2010. I’m just very concerned about the way his injuries have affected him for the past two seasons and how they will affect him in the future. Because Hardy is not likely to hit much over .260 and he possesses no stolen base potential, he’d have to get back to his 20-plus home runs days as a Brewer to hold value. Unfortunately, problems with his wrist don’t exactly bode well for hitters who’s value is based on power.