Looking Back: FB365 League’s Inaugural Draft Part 2

Round 13

One of the biggest values of the draft was found here with pick one. Vlady had an amazing first half this season, but he has been downright bad post all-star break (.258/.307/.372 with 4 home runs). My guess is that his overall numbers will vault him into the top seven rounds, which would make him a rather risky pick as he heads into his age 36 season. The second pick in this round was one of the biggest disappointments of 2010. After flashing excellent stolen base potential in 2009, Julio Borbon failed to hit for AVG or get on base early on and would eventually lose his everyday job. An improvement in line drive rate would go a long way for Borbon, who could still make for an intriguing last round pick in 2011. Jonathan Sanchez has had a nice season, but I’m not very high on him for next season.

Round 14

This was an interesting round in that there were a lot of “safe” picks other than Neftali Feliz. While Kuroda, and Ortiz performed at levels we pretty much expected, Cabrera, Cantu, Damon, Shields, Drew and Ludwick all produced rather flat numbers all year. Soto was hot and cold, but was also a victim to Sweet Lou treating the Cubs as an early retirement home.

Round 15

This was the speed round…literally. Nyjer Morgan, Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, Brett Gardner and Michael Bourn were all expected to produce high-end stolen base numbers. However, Brett Gardner has faded after a great start and Juan Pierre waited until mid-July to get his AVG in order. Morgan has had injury issues, Davis has been inconsistent and hasn’t got on base enough (.310 OBP), while Michael Bourn has seen a huge – and expected – regression in BABIP, leading to a lower OBP and less stolen base opportunities. If I had to pick one of these speedsters for 2011, it would be Gardner for his high walk rate. Still, I think his AVG might top out at .280, so investing too much may be a mistake.

Round 16

Hudson, despite the extremely low strikeout totals, has been a fantasy monster this year. I’m curious to see where his ADP lands him in 2011. It is extremely unlikely that he repeats such a low BABIP. Strasburg ended up being a decent selection here for 68 dominant innings. David Price, Roy Oswalt and Colby Lewis were both big time value picks. Did we need another example of why not to put too much stock into pitching early in drafts?

Round 17

Brad Lidge, despite his ups-and-downs, ended up a better value that Ryan Madson, who was selected two rounds earlier. Martin Prado was a great 17th round addition and continues to impress me as a line drive machine capable of 15 or so home runs per season. Alcides Escobar has disappointed, mostly because Ken Macha didn’t unleash him on the base paths. We’ll have to keep a close eye on reports next spring to see if he might get more chances to run in 2011.

Round 18

Time to throw out some fliers. Obviously Vernon Wells, despite his slowing down as the season went on, was worth an 18th round selection. Corey Hart was a big-time value in this round, but after signing a three-year $26,5 M extension, he has hit only .264/.304/.408 with a mere two home runs since the all-star break. He had a below average 0.40 BB/K rate pre-all-star break and has a horrible 0.15 BB/K rate post-all-star break. Enjoy that contract Milwaukee. Hart could be a bust in 2011 drafts.

Even with his second half slump, Alfonso Soriano was worth the risk in this round.

Corey Hart         .281/.336/.522, 23 HR, 6 SB, 82 RBI, 66 R

Alfonso Soriano .259/.316/.510, 21 HR, 5 SB, 68 RBI, 62 R

Round 19

How about Paul Konerko staying healthy and productive at age 34? My money is on his regressing a bit in 2011. Magglio Ordonez was a rock solid pick this late, but his injury issues popped up again and cost him his season from late July and on. Matt Capps ended up being a steal in round 19, but that just goes to show how small sample sizes from relievers can cause a big-time variance in numbers from year-to-year. Unlrss Rick Porcallo somehow finds a way to make a huge jump in his strikeout rate, he’s nothing more than a back-end starter.

Mat Latos…stud.

Round 20

Clay Buchholz finally had his breakout season, but his below average K/BB rate combined with a very low .260 BABIP and a sudden drop in home runs allowed could lead to a massive overdraft in 2011 due to his 2.21 ERA. Jeff Nieman actually has a better K/BB rate than Buchholz, but lacks the same stuff and should not see as much luck in BABIP next season. The one player selected in this round that may justify their raise in draft status next season is Colby Rasmus. All the tools are there for 25-30 home runs and 15-plus stolen bases. However, he’ll need to cut back on his strikeouts to hit much higher than .260. Also, there is this Tony LaRussa guy that doesn’t seem to like giving Rasmus playing time.

Round 21

Phil Hughes proved to be a good value here while Brian Matusz couldn’t maintain a solid start. Brandon Wood is just not a major league hitter. Period. I still like Felipe Paulino for next season as a late round flier due to his strikeout upside.

Round 22

There are a bunch of names in this round that could provide value in 2011 drafts. I’ve been writing a lot about Bud Norris lately and really like his upside as a late round pick once again in 2011. Matt LaPorta has been a major disappointment, but his track record of hitting for power in the minors makes him worth a flier for at least one more year. Chase Headley continues to improve. While I don’t think he’ll ever be a stud, he represents a solid value at a thin position. Gio Gonzalez has been lights out since the all-star break (2.25 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.58 K/BB rate). Though his K/BB rate overall is below average. I’d stay away if is ADP puts him above round 12.

Round 23

Jon Rauch was a solid value here, even though he recently lost his closer’s job. At the time of the draft the Twins were saying, “bullpen by committee.” Yeah, ok. Scott Rolen has represented a very good value, but if his stock rises too much next season he’ll be one to avoid due to continued injury issues.

Round 24

I didn’t hold onto Delmon Young long enough to reap the rewards of his huge July. I have a feeling that Young’s stock is going to skyrocket next season, but I think he’s getting a bit too much praise for what he has done this year. His AVG is at .305, good-not-great. His power output is average at best (15 home runs). He doesn’t steal bases and doesn’t draw walks (four percent walk rate). His biggest number is his RBI total (91). That number is all about opportunity, which is hard to predict from year-to-year outside of the super sluggers like Albert Pujols, Mark Texieira, Ryan Howard, etc…

Round 25

There were some fine flier picks in this round that just didn’t pan out (Snider, Holland). I’d still take a flier on both late in 2011 drafts.

Round 26

Gregg, Carmona and Jackson were the biggest values of this round. Though I wouldn’t go much higher on a draft pick for any in 2011. Posey would have represented a tremendous value, but he was cut while the Giants refused to call him up from triple-A. Ian Desmond has come on strong of late and certainly has potential for a 15/20 season in 2011, but will need to improve his plate discipline to hit .290-plus over a full season.

League winner…

This is a 12 team-league, but the rosters are fairly deep, which made draft day that much more important. My team got killed on draft day as only one of my top ten picks actually earned their value. On the contrary, the team that is running away with first place (Guppies) used their first three picks on Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto and Ryan Zimmerman (awesome haul). That team also grabbed solid contributors Andre Ethier in the 7th, Elvis Andrus in the 8th, Alex Rios in the ninth, Jose Valverde and Brian Wilson back-to-back in the 10th and 11th, Nick Swisher in the 14th, Colby Lewis in the 16th, Paul Konerko in the 19th, Phil Hughes in the 21st and Chris Young in the 22nd. This team was also able to pick up as free agent pitchers: Max Scherzer, Jaime Garcia and Gavin Floyd (don’t overpay for pitching) as well as fee agent catcher Mike Napoli when he started the season riding the pine more often than not.

There is still a lot to fight for as three teams continue to battle for the third place spot.