I've got Matusz at about 150 innings pitched this season, which at 5.75 innings per start would be about 26 games. I think he'll be a little above average - an ERA around 4.15 - which on a slightly below average team (I'm thinking 75-76 wins or so) would allow Matusz to rack up maybe 9-10 wins or so. WHIP of around 1.35 (about a hit an inning and a touch over 3 walks per nine), and 125 K's (7.5 K/9). I may be a little higher on him than the projection systems, but I think he's pretty polished and has four average to plus pitches that he can locate effectively already. I'm on his RoY bandwagon as well.
I think in his prime Jones will hit something like .300/.375/.500 with upwards of 30 HR. He's only 24 years old though, so there's probably a couple years before we see quite that level of patience and power. This year I'm not looking for much of an improvement over '09, with a line around .280/.335/.460 and maybe 20 home runs or so, plus 8-10 steals. He still has a lot of raw talent though, so a break-out towards that peak wouldn't be completely shocking.
Look, Matt Wieters is a golden god. Heck, he even has a website dedicated to facts about his life. How much improvement can we expect in 2010 and how long will it take for him to reach his peak season?
I think he'll improve - with more walks and some extra power production - to something like .285/.350/.450. He obviously could go crazy on the league, but I think that's still a couple of years away. Making adjustments in the majors is hard, and Wieters has to work on catching the pitchers as well. It's actually a little funny, since people assume that since I started Matt Wieters Facts that I'd be a huge Wieters booster, but I've been a little more down* on him than most so far.
* I call it "realistic", but one's mileage may vary.
I think Reimold will be the primary left-fielder, but Pie should still get plenty of time there. Partially because of the healing Achilles, and partially because Pie is the superior defensive player. If it was me, I might have made Pie the full-time LF, moved Reimold to DH, and had Luke Scott spend a lot of time this Spring learning first-base.
Can Nick Markakis go .300/25/20 season?
Nope. Not going to be stealing 20 bases, and 10 would probably be counted as his upside. A .300 average is more or less expected, and while I'd be more inclined to go with 20 home runs, 25 is pretty reasonable.
Under. Partially because he's been slowing down in recent years - http://camdencrazies.com/2010/03/22/brian-roberts-falling-stolen-base-total/ - and partially because he may may miss some time due to that back problem he's had this Spring. 25 might be a better bet, though hopefully an improved line-up behind him will result in some more runs scored (on a per-game basis).
David Hernandez doesn't get much hype, at all, but his strikeout rates have been very impressive in the minor leagues while showing decent command. Is there a chance he makes a mixed league impact in 2010?
He did have big-time strike-out numbers in the minors, but I'm not sure how much that'll carry over to the major leagues. He has some giddy-up on his fastball, but I don't think it's an especially great pitch. His breaking pitches are solid, but unless he can improve his command and control (4.1 BB/9 last year, and 4.5 BB/9 in Double-A the year before) I don't see him striking out a ton of batters. He can help some in that category though, but I don't know if it's worth the hit in ERA (probably over 5), WHIP (around 1.5), and Wins (not more than 5-6, I'd think).
Speaking of young Orioles pitchers; Chris Tillman has some good stuff, but his command seems to hinder him a bit. Is his ceiling a number three starter or can he push being a number two type guy?
Thoughts on Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe? Who's a starter and who's ultimately a reliever?
Does Josh Bell get a shot this season? And if so, does he hit enough to have value outside of AL-only leagues?
The Orioles are loaded with prospects. Name one player for keeper and dynasty leagues to keep and eye one other than the obvious top prospects.
2011, or maybe even into 2012 (spending '11 in Triple-A), unless he really dominates and shoots through the system. I think there are enough guys in front of him that there's no reason to rush him to the big leagues.