Fantasy Baseball 365
Brett Lawrie was handed a four game suspension for throwing his helmet, but will appeal the decision. Although Lawrie was quoted as saying he needs to explain his side of the story, Metta World Peace would argue that he could have thrown the helmet in a lot of other directions. The video justifies a 4-game suspension. In terms of the violence involved with this situation this is as bad as Carl Everett's head-butting episode 13 years ago. Lawrie really chucked the helmet. He was absolutely justified in erupting (it was a ball), but as a young player he needs to find a better way to let his aggression out. Lawrie is having a good year although he is not on pace for a 20/20 season as almost everyone thought he would have. Here are some other quick notes:
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It's hard to believe, but we're already approaching the quarter pole for the regular season. With that in mind, it's time to try and determine which hot starts are sustainable, and which aren't. Two former fantasy aces have gotten off to hot starts, and one pitcher's sizzling start to the season looks more believable than the other.
All PITCHf/x data courtesy BrooksBaseball.net
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OK, so the Orioles hitting three homers in a row to open a game may not be extremely fantasy relevant, but it's neat and hasn't been done before. All said and done, they hit five homers as a team in the first game of the double header. Sure teams have hit more, and Strasburg's 13 K's in 6 innings is more impressive, but I couldn't resist the urge to make a bird poop joke in today's headline. On to the bullets...
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It happens on a regular basis. Hot hitting prospect in the minors gets attention, a big league player gets hurt and opens the door, said prospect joins the big league club, fantasy owners flock to get him. Happened earlier this year with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, the much lesser known Kirk Nieuwenhuis came up the 2nd or 3rd day of the season and has played fantastic ball since. More often than not, said prospect struggles (Belt and Rizzo last year are prime examples). Last night, Scott Van Slyke threw his name into the hat.
Son of former All Star Andy Van Slyke, Scott was batting .336 with eight homers and 25 RBI in 32 games for AAA Tucson. Those numbers put him near the top of the leader boards in the PCL (his eight HR are second behind the aforementioned Rizzo). He was 6th in OPS sporting a 1.034 mark. We all take PCL stats with a grain of salt due to it's rep as a hitters league, however Van Slyke has two things working in his favor for a chance to succeed at the next level. Pedigree and combination of injury/poor performance ahead of him. He was called up because Juan Rivera has hit the DL with a severe hamstring strain or tear. We we learned from players like Jose Reyes, or going a little further back, Ken Griffey Jr. hammies can take more than 15 days to come back from. The Dodgers still have Tony Gwynn and Jerry Hariston (two other players with pro fathers, coincidentally) to play in the outfield, but Van Slyke can also play first base, which means the only person standing in front of him is James Loney. The same James Loney who is batting .213. The same James Loney who has a May OPS of .668 the last three years. The same James Loney who has a manager threatening his playing time should he continue to struggle.
If you are in a league that is NL only, or deep with weekly lineup changes, I would make the add and take a wait and see. He was raking in AAA so we know he can hit, it's just a matter of how much playing time he is going to get. Him slotting into 1B as well as OF only helps him, and I would imagine his pinch-hit-rbi-single in his first MLB at bat last night made a good impression.
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Son of former All Star Andy Van Slyke, Scott was batting .336 with eight homers and 25 RBI in 32 games for AAA Tucson. Those numbers put him near the top of the leader boards in the PCL (his eight HR are second behind the aforementioned Rizzo). He was 6th in OPS sporting a 1.034 mark. We all take PCL stats with a grain of salt due to it's rep as a hitters league, however Van Slyke has two things working in his favor for a chance to succeed at the next level. Pedigree and combination of injury/poor performance ahead of him. He was called up because Juan Rivera has hit the DL with a severe hamstring strain or tear. We we learned from players like Jose Reyes, or going a little further back, Ken Griffey Jr. hammies can take more than 15 days to come back from. The Dodgers still have Tony Gwynn and Jerry Hariston (two other players with pro fathers, coincidentally) to play in the outfield, but Van Slyke can also play first base, which means the only person standing in front of him is James Loney. The same James Loney who is batting .213. The same James Loney who has a May OPS of .668 the last three years. The same James Loney who has a manager threatening his playing time should he continue to struggle.
If you are in a league that is NL only, or deep with weekly lineup changes, I would make the add and take a wait and see. He was raking in AAA so we know he can hit, it's just a matter of how much playing time he is going to get. Him slotting into 1B as well as OF only helps him, and I would imagine his pinch-hit-rbi-single in his first MLB at bat last night made a good impression.
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Last night Josh Hamilton added his name to the baseball record books. He picked up 18 total bases in a game while going 5-for-5 with 4 HR's and a double. Hamilton's talent is never in question, just his health. Right now he is healthy and tearing it up. He has corrected his day night split problem from years past with special eye drops he uses before day games. He is living up to the contract year mythos in a big way. If you are an owner, enjoy it. If not, his value is probably too high right now to obtain him at a reasonable price. I mentioned a little while back I had him in a keeper league and traded him. Do I have remorse about it? Some. Not because he is still on fire, but because Hamilton is one of my favorite players (Yes, grown men can still have favorite players). I stil enjoy my team, but I miss seeing Hamilton's name on my daily roster. I parted ways with him for Joey Votto and Roy Halladay. I still think I got the better end of the deal in the long run, but after last night's performance if someone really wanted to pry him away via trade, is it even possible (realistic?) to give up more than the first and 2nd round picks I obtained for him? Probably not. If you have the resources to make such a move, don't. Sit tight. In fact, pre set your line ups for the next 3 weeks and lock up your computer. Better yet, have a trusted friend take it away. You need to be protected from yourself. There is a good chance Hamilton gets hurt in that time anyway.
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Were you one of the fantasy GMs savvy enough to snag Will Middlebrooks? Good for you! Now trade him as soon as you can!
There is no questioning that Middlebrooks is a skilled ballplayer. He put up a .302/.345/.520 line with 18 home runs in 397 plate appearances at Double-A last season and started the 2012 season on fire, tearing up Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .333/.380/.677 line with nine home runs in 100 plate appearances. Since being called to The Show, he hasn't exactly slowed down...at all. Coming into today, Middlebrooks was hitting .381/.380/.952 (no, that's not a .952 OPS, that's a .952 SLG!) with three long balls in only 22 plate appearances (he doubled in his first at-bat as I started writing this).
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There is no questioning that Middlebrooks is a skilled ballplayer. He put up a .302/.345/.520 line with 18 home runs in 397 plate appearances at Double-A last season and started the 2012 season on fire, tearing up Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .333/.380/.677 line with nine home runs in 100 plate appearances. Since being called to The Show, he hasn't exactly slowed down...at all. Coming into today, Middlebrooks was hitting .381/.380/.952 (no, that's not a .952 OPS, that's a .952 SLG!) with three long balls in only 22 plate appearances (he doubled in his first at-bat as I started writing this).
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There are a couple things that piqued my interest yesterday. So much in fact, I couldn't decide what to focus on for the main point of this mornings article. So rather than short change any of my thoughts (looking to give you your full penny's worth) I'm just going to kind go on and see where it take me.
First up, the Cole Hamels suspension. I'm not going to go into the reasoning for the suspension, that doesn't matter. I want to focus on the actual act of suspending. I feel that suspending pitchers is a joke. He has a five game suspension. So pretty much that means he pitches on an extra day of rest. It's dumb. it's not a punishment. If a position player is suspended for 3 or 5 games, he actually misses 3 or 5 games. A starting pitcher only plays once every 5 games, so in essence he is suspended for games he wasn't scheduled to be in anyway. If a player is going to be suspended from games, he needs to be suspended from games he is actually going to have an impact on. I'm not a lawyer so I don't know what kind of language the rule needs, or how to make the players union and MLB agree to it, but for a starting pitcher to be suspended and have it be an actual punishment, he needs to miss a couple turns through the rotation or something. Now, all that being said, I own Hamels on my 2nd place Blog Wars team, and I'm pumped that he will be able to pitch this week in the weekly lineup format we use.
Next Item on the agenda; Carlos Zambrano, another player on my Blog Wars team. I grabbed him with my 2nd to last pick in the draft. The definition of draft lotto ticket, he has paid dividends so far. This week (a two start week) is the first I am actually using him in my lineup. He has a rep for not being the most stable guy in the club house, but neither is his manager. The Ozzie and Carlos marriage is one I figured would work, and to this point everyone has to be happy. He picked up his first win last night, a complete game 3 hit shutout in which he struck out 9 Astros. It was his 5th quality start in a row. There is a lot to like about him this year. His K/9 is up from last year while his BB/9 are down. His ground ball rate is back to where it was when he was the ace of the Cubs staff from '03-'06/'07. His current swinging strike rate is the highest it's been since 2001. Looking at his Heat Maps on Fangraphs, he has the off-speed stuff working, keeping his slider in on righties and the change up low and in on lefties. Both pitches are avoiding the strike zone and batters are chasing. I haven't been able to watch any of this games, but I imagine it pitches are heading for the zone then breaking out of it forcing the batter to swing. At this point he has earned some trust despite the level of competition in his quality start streak. (HOU, WSH, ARI, SF, HOU again). no comments
First up, the Cole Hamels suspension. I'm not going to go into the reasoning for the suspension, that doesn't matter. I want to focus on the actual act of suspending. I feel that suspending pitchers is a joke. He has a five game suspension. So pretty much that means he pitches on an extra day of rest. It's dumb. it's not a punishment. If a position player is suspended for 3 or 5 games, he actually misses 3 or 5 games. A starting pitcher only plays once every 5 games, so in essence he is suspended for games he wasn't scheduled to be in anyway. If a player is going to be suspended from games, he needs to be suspended from games he is actually going to have an impact on. I'm not a lawyer so I don't know what kind of language the rule needs, or how to make the players union and MLB agree to it, but for a starting pitcher to be suspended and have it be an actual punishment, he needs to miss a couple turns through the rotation or something. Now, all that being said, I own Hamels on my 2nd place Blog Wars team, and I'm pumped that he will be able to pitch this week in the weekly lineup format we use.
Next Item on the agenda; Carlos Zambrano, another player on my Blog Wars team. I grabbed him with my 2nd to last pick in the draft. The definition of draft lotto ticket, he has paid dividends so far. This week (a two start week) is the first I am actually using him in my lineup. He has a rep for not being the most stable guy in the club house, but neither is his manager. The Ozzie and Carlos marriage is one I figured would work, and to this point everyone has to be happy. He picked up his first win last night, a complete game 3 hit shutout in which he struck out 9 Astros. It was his 5th quality start in a row. There is a lot to like about him this year. His K/9 is up from last year while his BB/9 are down. His ground ball rate is back to where it was when he was the ace of the Cubs staff from '03-'06/'07. His current swinging strike rate is the highest it's been since 2001. Looking at his Heat Maps on Fangraphs, he has the off-speed stuff working, keeping his slider in on righties and the change up low and in on lefties. Both pitches are avoiding the strike zone and batters are chasing. I haven't been able to watch any of this games, but I imagine it pitches are heading for the zone then breaking out of it forcing the batter to swing. At this point he has earned some trust despite the level of competition in his quality start streak. (HOU, WSH, ARI, SF, HOU again). no comments
36-year-old Paul Konerko is off to a tremendous start this season, hitting .347/.426/.614 with six bombs, 14 runs, and 17 RBI. His value might never be higher.
Paulie has hit over .300 for the past two seasons and he’s off to a great start in 2012. However, it’s highly unlikely that he will sustain a BABIP over .360. The question is, when his AVG drops, how far will it go? Konerko has a rather high 19.4-percent HR/FB rate, yet a rather low fly-ball rate, a stat that has been trending down for a couple of years now. Another trend has been Konerko’s rise in line-drive rate, which seems to be continuing this season as well.
Last season, Konerko had a fantascit first half of the season, hitting .319/.390/.564 with 22 home runs. However, he faded big-tme in the second half, hitting .272/.385/.447 with only nine home runs.
Because of his age and the possibility that he will fade a bit in the second half as he did last season, it’s worth shopping him around. However, if the price isn’t right, he’s a solid hold.
It has been a crazy week for injuries. The Great Mambino is back for their weekly installment of fantasy knowledge. Here's an excerpt from thier work:
What's happening in the water in major metropolitan cities across the US? Has the trace amount of fluoride in the tap just suddenly started to disintegrate tendons in your joints? Does pine tar gain the properties that destroys calcium in your bones? I'm not sure exactly what's causing our favorite athletes to drop faster than Charles Barkley does names on TNT. Let's take a look at who exactly went on the 15-day DL this week, how it'll affect their team, but most importantly, how it's going to affect YOUR fantasy team.
OF Carlos Gomez, SS Alex Gonzalez and 1B Mat Gamel, The Good Land Brewers
All in a week, three Milwaukee starters went down with leg injuries, including Gomez with a strained hamstring, Gonzalez with a right knee injury and Gamel with a torn ACL. Extremely bad news for a Brewers team that's already under .500 and trying to get their postseason mojo back after losing Prince Fielder to free agency and trying to escape Ryan Braun's cheatery scandal.
The problem here isn't so much that these guys are integral parts to the Milwaukee offense; Gomez was an above-average player, while Gamel and Gonzalez were giving the Brewers replacement-level production. Nor was it that they had any particular upside as the season went on. The real hurdle to their absences, especially a season-ending injury like Gamel's, is that the players replacing them are indicative of Milwaukee's lack of depth. Two punchless hitters in SS Cesar Izturis and 1B Travis Ishikawa are now the starters, and an under-achieving OF Nyjer Morgan is replacing a cresting Carlos Gomez. Sure, Gamel, Gonzalez and Gomez weren't All-Stars or highly productive hitters, but at least they were decent, rather than the below replacement-level stink performed by their understudies. All in all, a devastating week for Milwaukee.
Fantasy Spin: None of these three are worth even holding on your DL spot, unless you're in a very deep mixed league or NL-only league (in Gamel's situation, he's a must-drop for everyone). Their replacements aren't worth picking up either, so if you owned anyone that I just talked about, you're pretty much screwed. Sorry.
For more on the many injuries over the past week check out the rest of their article. no comments
What's happening in the water in major metropolitan cities across the US? Has the trace amount of fluoride in the tap just suddenly started to disintegrate tendons in your joints? Does pine tar gain the properties that destroys calcium in your bones? I'm not sure exactly what's causing our favorite athletes to drop faster than Charles Barkley does names on TNT. Let's take a look at who exactly went on the 15-day DL this week, how it'll affect their team, but most importantly, how it's going to affect YOUR fantasy team.
OF Carlos Gomez, SS Alex Gonzalez and 1B Mat Gamel, The Good Land Brewers
All in a week, three Milwaukee starters went down with leg injuries, including Gomez with a strained hamstring, Gonzalez with a right knee injury and Gamel with a torn ACL. Extremely bad news for a Brewers team that's already under .500 and trying to get their postseason mojo back after losing Prince Fielder to free agency and trying to escape Ryan Braun's cheatery scandal.
The problem here isn't so much that these guys are integral parts to the Milwaukee offense; Gomez was an above-average player, while Gamel and Gonzalez were giving the Brewers replacement-level production. Nor was it that they had any particular upside as the season went on. The real hurdle to their absences, especially a season-ending injury like Gamel's, is that the players replacing them are indicative of Milwaukee's lack of depth. Two punchless hitters in SS Cesar Izturis and 1B Travis Ishikawa are now the starters, and an under-achieving OF Nyjer Morgan is replacing a cresting Carlos Gomez. Sure, Gamel, Gonzalez and Gomez weren't All-Stars or highly productive hitters, but at least they were decent, rather than the below replacement-level stink performed by their understudies. All in all, a devastating week for Milwaukee.
Fantasy Spin: None of these three are worth even holding on your DL spot, unless you're in a very deep mixed league or NL-only league (in Gamel's situation, he's a must-drop for everyone). Their replacements aren't worth picking up either, so if you owned anyone that I just talked about, you're pretty much screwed. Sorry.
For more on the many injuries over the past week check out the rest of their article. no comments
It finally happened. After 111 AB's, Pujols finally went yard. I don't have any experience as a big league hitter, but I can imagine this is a sizable burden that has been lifted off him. Hopefully with that out of the way he can relax and get back on his game. He still has the 10th worst OBP and 20th worst AVG in baseball among regulars, but as outlined last week, he is a prime buy low candidate and despite the slow start still projects for close to 30 HR's.
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